Dynamics of Housing Affordability and Effects of Regional Migration: Evidence From England and Japan

Takako Idee, Toru Kurahashi
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Abstract

This study aims to identify the primary driving forces behind the recent high appreciation in housing prices, discover how regional mobility influences housing affordability, and determine what policies are effective to address the problem. To do this, we estimate the structural model of housing prices and regional mobility using 2012/2013 to 2020/2021 panel data for England and Japan. The results reveal that the housing market in England is quite responsive to changes in expected housing price appreciation and that regional mobility alleviates the housing affordability problem; however, the Japanese housing market lacks mobility and is responsive to the supply of new houses. Regional mobility in England was driven expected wage and house prices, which alleviated the negative effect of increased house prices and contributed to convergence of regional differences in affordability. In both countries, increased share of parttime workers would invite workers’ inflow and worsen the affordability. To address these issues, each country has implemented different policies, with varying degrees of effectiveness. The British government has targeted a substantial increase in housing supply, but it should be associated with measures for curving the expectation of house price appreciation in urban regions. The Japanese government, on the contrary, should increase housing stock by renovating vacant houses and liquidate the labour market.
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住房负担能力动态与区域移民效应:来自英国和日本的证据
本研究旨在确定近期房价高升值背后的主要驱动力,发现区域流动性如何影响住房负担能力,并确定有效解决这一问题的政策。为了做到这一点,我们使用2012/2013至2020/2021年英国和日本的面板数据来估计房价和区域流动性的结构模型。结果表明,英国住房市场对预期房价升值的变化具有较强的响应性,区域流动性缓解了住房负担能力问题;然而,日本房地产市场缺乏流动性,只对新房供应做出反应。英格兰的区域流动性推动了预期工资和房价,缓解了房价上涨的负面影响,并有助于区域负担能力差异的收敛。在这两个国家,增加兼职工人的比例会吸引工人流入,并使负担能力恶化。为了解决这些问题,每个国家都实施了不同程度的有效政策。英国政府的目标是大幅增加住房供应,但这应该与扭曲城市地区房价上涨预期的措施相关联。相反,日本政府应该通过翻新空置房屋和清理劳动力市场来增加住房存量。
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19
审稿时长
24 weeks
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