Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years

IF 3.8 2区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Climate Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06970-w
Gerald A. Meehl, Ben Kirtman, Anne A. Glanville, Jadwiga Richter, Nan Rosenbloom, Stephen Yeager
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Abstract

Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.
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E3SMv1和CESM1初始化的年代际气候预测资料采用两种不同的初始化方法和小组起始年预测太平洋年代际振荡的能力评价
用足够的集合成员和相关的开始年份来进行初始化的预测是一项艰巨的挑战,以形成一个漂移气候学,从中计算出与观测相比量化预测技能所需的异常。这限制了用案例研究和其他应用程序进行实验的能力,这些应用程序最初只需要几年的时间。在这里,我们使用两种不同的初始化方法对有限的开始年份运行CESM1和E3SMv1的一组后播,并使用各自未初始化的自由运行历史模拟来形成模式气候学。由于后预报中观测到的初始状态向未初始化模式状态的漂移大而迅速,几年后,漂移的初始化模式接近于未初始化模式的气候误差。因此,有限开始年份的后验可以使用未初始化的气候学来表示大约第3年之后的漂移模式状态,从而提供了在没有大后验样本的情况下计算预测异常的方法。在年代际太平洋涛动领域,使用该方法预测多年太平洋海面温度异常的空间格局与使用大型后验数据集的传统方法相比具有相当的技巧,尽管在两种初始化方法中存在模式依赖于漂移。
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来源期刊
Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
15.20%
发文量
483
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: The international journal Climate Dynamics provides for the publication of high-quality research on all aspects of the dynamics of the global climate system. Coverage includes original paleoclimatic, diagnostic, analytical and numerical modeling research on the structure and behavior of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biomass and land surface as interacting components of the dynamics of global climate. Contributions are focused on selected aspects of climate dynamics on particular scales of space or time. The journal also publishes reviews and papers emphasizing an integrated view of the physical and biogeochemical processes governing climate and climate change.
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