Pub Date : 2024-01-02DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07044-7
Juan C. Sulca, Ken Takahashi, J. Espinoza, José Tacza, Ricardo Zubieta, K. Mosquera, J. Apaéstegui
{"title":"A multiple linear regression model for the prediction of summer rainfall in the northwestern Peruvian Amazon using large-scale indices","authors":"Juan C. Sulca, Ken Takahashi, J. Espinoza, José Tacza, Ricardo Zubieta, K. Mosquera, J. Apaéstegui","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07044-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07044-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"6 3","pages":"1-21"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139124935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-02DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07056-3
Junjun Li, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Xu Zhou, Kun Yang, Jian Li, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaoqi Xu, Shiying Wu, Rui Hu, Xin He, Zhuangzhuang Zhou, Lei Zhu, Shi Luo
{"title":"The influence of complex terrain on cloud and precipitation on the foot and slope of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Junjun Li, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Xu Zhou, Kun Yang, Jian Li, Xiaoqing Wu, Xiaoqi Xu, Shiying Wu, Rui Hu, Xin He, Zhuangzhuang Zhou, Lei Zhu, Shi Luo","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07056-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07056-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"11 8","pages":"1-21"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139124736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simulation of MJO with improved deep convection scheme in different resolutions of BCC-CSM2 models","authors":"Mengzhe Zheng, Tongwen Wu, X. Xin, Xiangwen Liu, Yixiong Lu, W. Jie, Chengjun Xie, Yumeng Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07015-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07015-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"6 5","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139124822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2022-08-07DOI: 10.1007/s10670-022-00605-y
Tim Räz, Claus Beisbart
Some machine learning models, in particular deep neural networks (DNNs), are not very well understood; nevertheless, they are frequently used in science. Does this lack of understanding pose a problem for using DNNs to understand empirical phenomena? Emily Sullivan has recently argued that understanding with DNNs is not limited by our lack of understanding of DNNs themselves. In the present paper, we will argue, contra Sullivan, that our current lack of understanding of DNNs does limit our ability to understand with DNNs. Sullivan's claim hinges on which notion of understanding is at play. If we employ a weak notion of understanding, then her claim is tenable, but rather weak. If, however, we employ a strong notion of understanding, particularly explanatory understanding, then her claim is not tenable.
{"title":"The Importance of Understanding Deep Learning.","authors":"Tim Räz, Claus Beisbart","doi":"10.1007/s10670-022-00605-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10670-022-00605-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Some machine learning models, in particular deep neural networks (DNNs), are not very well understood; nevertheless, they are frequently used in science. Does this lack of understanding pose a problem for using DNNs to understand empirical phenomena? Emily Sullivan has recently argued that understanding with DNNs is not limited by our lack of understanding of DNNs themselves. In the present paper, we will argue, <i>contra</i> Sullivan, that our current lack of understanding of DNNs does limit our ability to understand with DNNs. Sullivan's claim hinges on which notion of understanding is at play. If we employ a weak notion of understanding, then her claim is tenable, but rather weak. If, however, we employ a strong notion of understanding, particularly explanatory understanding, then her claim is not tenable.</p>","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"26 1","pages":"1823-1840"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11090801/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74087474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3
Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu
Climate science has long explored whether higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) provide improved simulation of regional climates over global climate models (GCMs). The advent of convective-permitting RCMs (CPRCMs), where sufficiently fine-scale grids allow explicitly resolving rather than parametrising convection, has created a clear distinction between RCM and GCM formulations. This study investigates the simulation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands in a suite of pan-South America convective-permitting Met Office Unified Model (UM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations. All simulations produce annual cycles in TE cloud band frequency within 10-30% of observed climatology. However, too few cloud band days are simulated during the early summer (Nov-Dec) and too many during the core summer (Jan-Feb). Compared with their parent forcing, CPRCMs simulate more dry days but systematically higher daily rainfall rates, keeping the total rain biases low. During cloud band systems, the CPRCMs correctly reproduced the observed changes in tropical rain rates and their importance to climatology. Circulation analysis suggests that simulated lower subtropical rain rates during cloud bands systems, in contrast to the higher rates in the tropics, are associated with weaker northwesterly moisture flux from the Amazon towards southeast South America, more evident in the CPRCMs. Taken together, the results suggest that CPRCMs tend to be more effective at producing heavy daily rainfall rates than parametrised simulations for a given level of near-surface moist energy. The extent to which this improves or degrades biases present in the parent simulations is strongly region-dependent.
{"title":"The added value of using convective-permitting regional climate model simulations to represent cloud band events over South America.","authors":"Marcia T Zilli, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Neil C G Hart, Kate Halladay, Ron Kahana, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Prein, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00382-024-07460-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate science has long explored whether higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) provide improved simulation of regional climates over global climate models (GCMs). The advent of convective-permitting RCMs (CPRCMs), where sufficiently fine-scale grids allow explicitly resolving rather than parametrising convection, has created a clear distinction between RCM and GCM formulations. This study investigates the simulation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands in a suite of pan-South America convective-permitting Met Office Unified Model (UM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate simulations. All simulations produce annual cycles in TE cloud band frequency within 10-30% of observed climatology. However, too few cloud band days are simulated during the early summer (Nov-Dec) and too many during the core summer (Jan-Feb). Compared with their parent forcing, CPRCMs simulate more dry days but systematically higher daily rainfall rates, keeping the total rain biases low. During cloud band systems, the CPRCMs correctly reproduced the observed changes in tropical rain rates and their importance to climatology. Circulation analysis suggests that simulated lower subtropical rain rates during cloud bands systems, in contrast to the higher rates in the tropics, are associated with weaker northwesterly moisture flux from the Amazon towards southeast South America, more evident in the CPRCMs. Taken together, the results suggest that CPRCMs tend to be more effective at producing heavy daily rainfall rates than parametrised simulations for a given level of near-surface moist energy. The extent to which this improves or degrades biases present in the parent simulations is strongly region-dependent.</p>","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"62 12","pages":"10543-10564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11564233/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-31DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07050-9
Maonan Chen, Chuan Gao, Rongyu Zhang
{"title":"How the central-western equatorial Pacific easterly wind in early 2022 affects the third-year La Niña occurrence","authors":"Maonan Chen, Chuan Gao, Rongyu Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07050-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07050-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"107 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139134647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-28DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07049-2
Xi Guo, J. Kossin, Zhe-Min Tan
{"title":"The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the variability of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Xi Guo, J. Kossin, Zhe-Min Tan","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07049-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07049-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"5 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139150860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-28DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07051-8
Xuefeng Dong, Yuzhi Liu, Xiaoqiang Yan, Yingsi Wang, Ziyuan Tan, Min Luo, Dan Li, Ying Wang, Shijia Tang
{"title":"Compound impacts of South Asian summer monsoon and westerlies on summer precipitation over Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Xuefeng Dong, Yuzhi Liu, Xiaoqiang Yan, Yingsi Wang, Ziyuan Tan, Min Luo, Dan Li, Ying Wang, Shijia Tang","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07051-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07051-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"72 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139150123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-26DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07043-8
Soumya Guchhait, Aka Sharma, A. Dimri
{"title":"Bias correction of modelled precipitation from CORDEX-CORE experiments over the Upper Teesta River Basin","authors":"Soumya Guchhait, Aka Sharma, A. Dimri","doi":"10.1007/s00382-023-07043-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07043-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10165,"journal":{"name":"Climate Dynamics","volume":"5 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139155538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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