River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

IF 11.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI:10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-093732
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Wonsuck Kim, Glenn A. Milne, Melinda Quock, Aimée B.A. Slangen, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. ▪ There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. ▪ Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. ▪ Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. ▪ Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. ▪ River deltas globally might lose 5% (∼35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.
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河流三角洲和海平面上升
未来海平面上升对许多河流三角洲构成了生存威胁,然而量化海平面变化对这些沿海地貌的影响仍然是一个挑战。与仪器记录中的其他沿海过程相比,海平面变化缓慢,因此我们的知识主要来自模型、实验和地质记录。本文回顾了河流三角洲对海平面变化响应的科学现状,包括从全新世到2300 CE的模型和观测。我们报告了对过去和未来区域海平面变化的探测和模拟的改进,包括对潜在过程和不确定性来源的更好理解。我们还看到形态动力学delta模型的显著改进。尽管如此,大量的不确定性仍然存在,特别是在三角洲及其附近目前和未来的沉降率。由于现代海平面上升导致的三角洲淹没和土地流失的观测结果也仍然难以捉摸,这对模式验证构成了重大挑战。▪在全新世期间,三角洲的形成时间和随后的沉积过程存在很大差异,这可能是由于不同的海平面和沉积物供应历史造成的。现代三角洲面积更大,海平面上升速度比全新世时期更快,这使它们容易受到强迫海侵的影响。▪在过去十年中,区域海平面预测已经有了很大的改进,现在还可以隔离主要的不确定性来源,例如南极冰盖。三角洲的垂直陆地运动可能是相对海平面变化的主要来源和不确定性的主要来源;有限的观测结果使预测复杂化。▪在高排放情景下,由于海平面相对上升,到2100年,全球河流三角洲的表面积可能减少5%(~ 35000平方公里),到2300年可能减少50%。
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来源期刊
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 地学天文-地球科学综合
CiteScore
25.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: Since its establishment in 1973, the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences has been dedicated to providing comprehensive coverage of advancements in the field. This esteemed publication examines various aspects of earth and planetary sciences, encompassing climate, environment, geological hazards, planet formation, and the evolution of life. To ensure wider accessibility, the latest volume of the journal has transitioned from a gated model to open access through the Subscribe to Open program by Annual Reviews. Consequently, all articles published in this volume are now available under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.
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