In the zone: the effects of 2002–2010 upzoning on urban life in New York City

Abstract

As policymakers look for solutions to mitigate the growing housing crisis and sustainable urban development, upzoning is becoming an increasingly popular tool. By altering a community's zoning code to allow for denser development, advocates hope to increase housing capacity and affordability. However, upzoning's effects on urban life, which we define as encompassing housing, greenspace, demographics, and transportation, remains unclear. Existing research primarily consists of isolated studies on each of these aspects' relationship with land use. In this study, we develop a holistic path analysis model by joining 2002–2010 lot-level and aggregating them with 2010–2018 tract-level datasets within NYC, investigating the impacts of upzoning on urban life as a whole. Unlike existing research, this model considers the delayed effects of upzoning by longitudinally separating upzoning from the dependent variables to elucidate the correlation of upzoning with different aspects of urban life. An imagery-based approach was used to more accurately measure greenspace, and a complex path analysis using densification as the main intermediate variable with significance thresholds was applied, enabling satisfactory model fit while preserving only significant connections between land-use and urban life. We find a positive correlation between densification and upzoning, through which upzoning is positively associated with increased home values and urban greening. However, no associations are identified between upzoning with rent prices, racial gentrification and transportation patterns. These results suggest that 2002–2010 upzoning in NYC does not fully realize its goals of increasing housing capacity and affordability. The comprehensive analysis of the impact of upzoning on broader aspects of urban life discussed in this study will be beneficial for future policy making and urban planning.