Predicting the Level of Ecological Safety for Man-made Objects

Abstract

The authors explored the utilization of simulation models as a means to ensure environmental safety, using the industrial hub of Kemerovo as an illustrative example. The article analyzes the factors that have contributed to the deterioration of the environment in the region for decades. It has been established that in terms of the overall percentage distribution of emissions from stationary sources, energy enterprises (73.0%), chemical and petrochemical industries (4.7%), and black metallurgy enterprises (7.8%) are leading in the city of Kemerovo. Simulation modelling has shown that the cause of high concentrations of harmful substances in the atmosphere of Kemerovo is due to the negative factors of industrial and household activities and their impact on environmental safety. High correlation and sensitivity coefficients indicate a lack of new available technologies in the region's industry and transport that could prevent air pollution. The forecasting model has indicated a potential two, three or even greater increase in emissions. For example, in the long-term perspective, by 2063, manufacturing emissions could potentially increase by 35 times, leading to irreversible ecological consequences. Extreme pollution and depletion of natural resources could make living in this region impossible.