Gap between impact-based and impact forecast and warning: Implications for people-centric early warning system (EWS) in India

Biswanath Dash
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Abstract

This paper explores the scope and potential of Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) services for hydro-meteorological hazards in India. It builds upon several global and national initiatives which emphasize that the Early Warning System (EWS) requires to be people-centric and inclusive in order to reduce disaster risk. The objectives of the study are: to understand the current Impact-based Forecast and Warnings framework of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and its usefulness from the people's perspective. Drawing from fieldwork conducted in Krushnaparasad Block, Puri District of India, the paper argues that there is a shifting focus towards meeting the requirements of general public, but there is a long way to go as far as meeting expectations are concerned. It calls for changes such as strengthening risk assessment modeling, clarity over institutional mandates and adoption of flexible governance frameworks to move from an Impact-based paradigm to Impact Forecast and Warning services.

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基于影响的预报和预警与基于影响的预报和预警之间的差距:对印度以人为本的预警系统(EWS)的影响
本文探讨了印度水文气象灾害基于影响的预报和预警(IbFW)服务的范围和潜力。它建立在一些全球和国家倡议的基础上,这些倡议强调预警系统(EWS)必须以人为本并具有包容性,以减少灾害风险。本研究的目标是:了解印度气象局(IMD)当前基于影响的预测和预警框架,以及从人们的角度看该框架的实用性。根据在印度普里区 Krushnaparasad Block 进行的实地调查,本文认为,目前的重点正在转向满足普通公众的要求,但在满足期望方面还有很长的路要走。论文呼吁进行改革,如加强风险评估建模、明确机构任务和采用灵活的治理框架,以便从基于影响的模式转向影响预测和预警服务。
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