SWAT model calibration for hydrological modeling using concurrent methods, a case of the Nile Nyabarongo River basin in Rwanda

Abstract

The Nile Nyabarongo, which is Rwanda's largest river, is facing stress from both human activities and climate change. These factors have a substantial contribution to the water processes, making it difficult to effectively manage water resources. To address this issue, it is important to find out the most accurate techniques for simulating hydrological processes. This study aimed to calibrate the SWAT model employing various algorithms such as GLUE, ParaSol, and SUFI-2 for the simulation of hydrology in the basin of the Nile Nyabarongo River. Different data sources, such as DEM, Landsat images, soil data, and daily meteorological data, were utilized to input information into the SWAT modeling process. To divide the basin area effectively, 25 sub-basins were created, with due consideration of soil characteristics and the diverse land cover. The outcomes point out that SUFI-2 outperformed the other algorithms for SWAT calibration, requiring fewer computing model runs and producing the best results. ParaSol established residing the least effective algorithm. After calibration with SUFI-2, the most sensitive parameters for modeling were revealed to be (1) the Effective Channel Hydraulic Conductivity (CH K2) measuring how well water can flow through a channel, with higher values indicating better conductivity, (2) Manning's n value (CH N2) representing the roughness or resistance to flow within the channel, with smaller values suggesting a smoother channel, (3) Surface Runoff Lag Time (SURLAG) quantifying the delay between rainfall and the occurrence of surface runoff, with shorter values indicating faster runoff response, (4) the Universal Soil-Loss Equation (USLE P) estimating the amount of soil loss. The average evapotranspiration within the basin was calculated to be 559.5 mma-1. These calibration results are important for decision-making and updating policies related to water balance management in the basin.