Dynamical analysis and numerical simulation of a stochastic influenza transmission model with human mobility and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Abstract

With the inevitable environmental perturbations and complex population movements, the analysis of troublesome influenza is harder to proceed. Studies about the epidemic mathematical models can not only forecast the development trend of influenza, but also have a beneficial influence on the protection of health and the economy. Motivated by this, a stochastic influenza model incorporating human mobility and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is established in this paper. Based on the existence of the unique global positive solution, we obtain sufficient conditions for influenza extinction and persistence, which are related to the basic reproduction number in the corresponding deterministic model. Notably, the analytical expression of the probability density function of stationary distribution near the quasi-endemic equilibrium is obtained by solving the challenging Fokker–Planck equation. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical conclusions, and the effect of main parameters and environmental perturbations on influenza transmission are also investigated.