Public mass shootings in developed countries: uncovering stability and change at the turn of the century

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study examines the stability and change in public mass shootings in developed countries outside of the United States (2000–2021). Public mass shootings refer to incidents involving public/populated locations, random/symbolic victims, and at least four fatalities. Results identified an increase in the frequency of attacks in developed countries, although particularly deadly incidents remained relatively consistent. Offenders were commonly and consistently male, middle-aged, single, and diagnosed with a mental illness. Incidents often involved handguns, more than one firearm, and open-area locations. Offenders were often motivated by a desire for fame; although, early fame-seekers were younger, school shooters, while recent offenders had far-right ideological beliefs. Other changes included an increase in offenders obtaining their firearms illegally, using assault rifles, diversifying their target locations, and being shot and killed. This provides the first step for understanding mass shooting trends in the often-overlooked developed countries outside of the United States.KEYWORDS: Mass shootingsmass violence in developed countriesinternational homicide comparisonstrends in violence Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.Notes1. Including Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.2. In this study, mass shootings refer to public incidents that were completed. Public meaning they occurred in public or populated locations and at least some victims were chosen at random and/or for their symbolic value (Krouse & Richardson, Citation2015; Silva, Citation2022a). Completed meaning they involved four or more victim fatalities (Greene-Colozzi & Silva, Citation2022b; Silva, Citation2022c).3. Lankford (Citation2016a) found that despite making up less than 5% of the global population, the United States has produced 31% of global mass shootings.4. From this point forward, unless otherwise noted, all language referencing developed countries is excluding the United States.5. See Silva (Citation2022b) for an in-depth understanding of the nuanced data collection process used to identify cases.6. All variables – except for the motivation variables – are objective facts with no discretion in reporting (e.g. sex, age, etc.).7. In three cases it was unclear if the offender received prior mental health treatment. This was coded as no/no evidence.8. This study focused on mass shootings after the turn of the century to avoid issues with publicity effects and time-period effects impacting the ability to capture relevant cases using open-source data. Given the relatively small number of cases, the analysis only used two time period categories, each encompassing 11 years.9. Mental illness only included those with a clinical diagnosis – including 13 offenders who received treatment prior to the attack, and two who received treatment after the attack. However, five offenders had a suspected or likely mental illness (indicated by friends and family), and two offenders showed clear signs of mental illness prior to/during the attack, but they died during the attack, so this can never be fully confirmed. In other words, offenders suffering from mental health problems were likely higher than is currently captured in this study, which used a high threshold for operationalising mental illness.10. Although, it is important to emphasise that this study excluded family mass shootings, which only involve family members, and do not involve random or symbolic victims.11. Only one jihadist-inspired shooter was also fame-seeking. This indicates the previously suggested intersection of fame and ideology (Lankford & Silver, Citation2020; Silva, Citation2022b; Silva & Lankford, Citation2022) is largely associated with far-right extremist shooters in developed countries.12. This study excludes the 2014 Belgium shooting, as well as the January 2015 and November 2015 shootings in France. In line with the initial mass shooting definition, these three jihadist-inspired incidents were excluded because they involved organised terrorist groups or terrorist-sponsored violence (see also Silva, Citation2022b). Nonetheless, even if these incidents were included, they would still align with the current findings: they all occurred after 2010, in countries that are part of the European Union – primarily France.13. Only one shooter between 2000 and 2021 targeted their workplace, aligning with previous research finding workplace attacks were much less common in other developed countries than in the United States (Lankford, Citation2016a; Silva, Citation2022b).Additional informationFundingThis research was supported (in part) by funds from a Summer Stipend from the Research Center for the Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences at William Paterson University.Notes on contributorsJason R. SilvaJason R. Silva is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at William Paterson University. Silva’s research examines mass shootings, terrorism, school violence, and mass media. His recent publications have appeared in Justice Quarterly, International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, Homicide Studies, Aggression and Violent Behavior, and Journal of Interpersonal Violence.