{"title":"Optimal monetary policy with r∗<0","authors":"Roberto Billi , Jordi Galí , Anton Nakov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (<span><math><msup><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach <em>gradually</em> a new steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, the optimal policy implies well defined (second-best) paths for inflation and output in response to shocks to the natural rate. Under plausible calibrations, the optimal policy implies that the nominal rate remains at its ZLB most of the time. Despite the latter feature, the central bank can implement the optimal outcome as a unique equilibrium by means of an appropriate nonlinear interest rate rule. In order to establish that result, we derive sufficient conditions for local determinacy in a general model with endogenous regime switches.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393223001058/pdfft?md5=4f0386c1ed52c1b308fef117471cb7c2&pid=1-s2.0-S0304393223001058-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Monetary Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393223001058","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate () becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, the optimal policy implies well defined (second-best) paths for inflation and output in response to shocks to the natural rate. Under plausible calibrations, the optimal policy implies that the nominal rate remains at its ZLB most of the time. Despite the latter feature, the central bank can implement the optimal outcome as a unique equilibrium by means of an appropriate nonlinear interest rate rule. In order to establish that result, we derive sufficient conditions for local determinacy in a general model with endogenous regime switches.
期刊介绍:
The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.