Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103661
Joseph Vavra
{"title":"Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge: A comment","authors":"Joseph Vavra","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103661","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103661"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657
Richard Clarida
This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.
{"title":"A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era”","authors":"Richard Clarida","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103657"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651
Raphael Schoenle
{"title":"Discussion of “Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence” by Hassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, Edson Wu","authors":"Raphael Schoenle","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103651"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644
Alberto Cavallo , Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast, cheapflation – a faster rise in prices of cheaper goods relative to prices of more expensive varieties of the same good – exacerbated it. Using Canadian Homescan Panel Data, we estimate that spending on discounts reduced the change in the average unit price by 4.1 percentage points, but expenditure switching to cheaper brands raised it by 2.8 percentage points.
{"title":"Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge","authors":"Alberto Cavallo , Oleksiy Kryvtsov","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast, <em>cheapflation</em> – a faster rise in prices of cheaper goods relative to prices of more expensive varieties of the same good – exacerbated it. Using Canadian Homescan Panel Data, we estimate that spending on discounts reduced the change in the average unit price by 4.1 percentage points, but expenditure switching to cheaper brands <em>raised</em> it by 2.8 percentage points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141871722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672
Katharine G. Abraham
None
无
{"title":"Discussion of “Phillips meets Beveridge,” by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro","authors":"Katharine G. Abraham","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>None</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103672"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659
Felix Aidala , Olivier Armantier , Giorgio Topa , Wilbert van der Klaauw
In this note we provide comments on the paper “Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation” (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR’s analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR’s results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans’ inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We also offer some commentary on BKR’s MSA-level empirical Phillips curve analysis and conclude with some observations on how BKR’s paper contributes to the literature on consumers’ inflation expectations.
{"title":"Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment","authors":"Felix Aidala , Olivier Armantier , Giorgio Topa , Wilbert van der Klaauw","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this note we provide comments on the paper “Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation” (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR’s analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR’s results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans’ inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We also offer some commentary on BKR’s MSA-level empirical Phillips curve analysis and conclude with some observations on how BKR’s paper contributes to the literature on consumers’ inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103659"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655
Klaus Adam
{"title":"Discussion of “Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock”","authors":"Klaus Adam","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103655"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653
Jonathan H. Wright
The vast majority of the literature on the effects of monetary policy shocks has considered their impacts on aggregate variables, including aggregate prices. The paper by Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel studies the impacts of monetary policy on the components of PCE. It documents considerable variability in the impulse response functions across components and finds that monetary policy shocks have large but very delayed effects on price aggregates. The finding of cross-sectional variability and its implications are very convincing, The large but delayed effects on aggregates may be more dependent on methodology and shock identification.
关于货币政策冲击影响的绝大多数文献都考虑了其对包括总价格在内的总体变量的影响。Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 的论文研究了货币政策对 PCE 各组成部分的影响。论文记录了各组成部分脉冲响应函数的巨大差异，并发现货币政策冲击对价格总量的影响巨大但非常滞后。跨部门变异性的发现及其影响非常令人信服，对总量的巨大但延迟的影响可能更多取决于方法和冲击识别。
{"title":"Comment on “The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices” by S. Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel","authors":"Jonathan H. Wright","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The vast majority of the literature on the effects of monetary policy shocks has considered their impacts on aggregate variables, including aggregate prices. The paper by Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel studies the impacts of monetary policy on the components of PCE. It documents considerable variability in the impulse response functions across components and finds that monetary policy shocks have large but very delayed effects on price aggregates. The finding of cross-sectional variability and its implications are very convincing, The large but delayed effects on aggregates may be more dependent on methodology and shock identification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103653"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650
Hassan Afrouzi , Saroj Bhattarai , Edson Wu
We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.
我们提供的理论和证据表明，相对价格冲击会导致总通胀，并起到总供给冲击的作用。经验表明，外生的正能源价格冲击不仅会对总体通胀率产生积极影响，还会对美国的核心通胀率产生积极影响，同时会抑制美国的实际活动。在一个具有上下游部门和异质价格粘性的双部门货币模型中，我们分析了上游冲击如何传播到价格中。利用面板 IV 本地预测，我们表明部门 PCE 价格对能源价格冲击的反应与模型预测一致。在美国后 COVID 通胀的激励下，模型实验表明，一次性的相对价格冲击会产生与数据中观察到的类似的总体和核心通胀的持续变动，即使在没有总量松弛的情况下也是如此。该模型还强调，货币政策立场在此类冲击的传播中发挥着重要作用。
{"title":"Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence","authors":"Hassan Afrouzi , Saroj Bhattarai , Edson Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103650"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649
Carola Conces Binder , Rupal Kamdar , Jane M. Ryngaert
We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.
{"title":"Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation","authors":"Carola Conces Binder , Rupal Kamdar , Jane M. Ryngaert","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 103649"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号