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Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge 大流行后通胀飙升期间的价格折扣和廉价通胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103644
Alberto Cavallo , Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast, cheapflation – a faster rise in prices of cheaper goods relative to prices of more expensive varieties of the same good – exacerbated it. Using Canadian Homescan Panel Data, we estimate that spending on discounts reduced the change in the average unit price by 4.1 percentage points, but expenditure switching to cheaper brands raised it by 2.8 percentage points.
我们研究了店内价格变化如何随通胀而变化,以及家庭是否利用这种变化来减轻通胀负担。我们使用了 10 个国家 91 家大型多渠道零售商在 2018 年至 2024 年期间销售的食品的微观价格数据。我们测量了狭义产品类别内的单价,分析了商店内价格变化的两个关键来源:临时价格折扣和同类产品之间的差异。与折扣相关的价格变化的平均增长率远低于正常价格,有助于减轻通胀负担。与此相反,相对于同一商品中价格较高的品种,价格较低的商品的价格上涨更快,从而加剧了通货膨胀。通过使用加拿大家庭扫描面板数据,我们估计用于折扣的支出将平均单价的变化降低了 4.1 个百分点,而用于购买廉价品牌的支出则将平均单价的变化降低了 2.8 个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
Price discounts and cheapflation during the post-pandemic inflation surge: A comment 大流行后通胀飙升时期的价格折扣和廉价通胀:评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103661
Joseph Vavra
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引用次数: 0
A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era” 大流行病后通货膨胀及其消退的全球视角:为 NBER "COVID 时代的通货膨胀 "会议准备的发言稿
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103657
Richard Clarida
This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.
本文对大流行病后全球通胀飙升的共同根源进行了高水平的回顾,并就这一飙升--以及这一时期货币政策的实施--如何为我们提供有关货币政策框架和执行的信息提出了一些看法。
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence” by Hassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, Edson Wu 讨论 "重新审视作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化:理论与证据",作者:Hassan Afrouzi、Saroj Bhattarai、Edson Wu
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103651
Raphael Schoenle
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Phillips meets Beveridge,” by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro 讨论 "菲利普斯与贝弗里奇",作者:Regis Barnichon 和 Adam Shapiro
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103672
Katharine G. Abraham
None
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引用次数: 0
Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment 党派预期与 COVID 时代的通货膨胀:评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659
Felix Aidala , Olivier Armantier , Giorgio Topa , Wilbert van der Klaauw
In this note we provide comments on the paper “Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation” (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR’s analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR’s results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans’ inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We also offer some commentary on BKR’s MSA-level empirical Phillips curve analysis and conclude with some observations on how BKR’s paper contributes to the literature on consumers’ inflation expectations.
在本说明中,我们对 Binder、Kamdar 和 Ryngaert(BKR)的论文 "党派预期与 COVID 时代的通货膨胀"(2024)进行了评论。我们利用纽约联储消费者预期调查的新证据对 BKR 的分析进行了补充。我们的分析证实了 BKR 关于政治派别与通胀预期之间关系的结果。不过,我们没有发现明确的证据表明共和党人的通胀预期在科维德-19 时代变得不稳定。我们还对 BKR 的 MSA 级实证菲利普斯曲线分析进行了一些评论,最后就 BKR 的论文对消费者通胀预期文献的贡献提出了一些看法。
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引用次数: 0
Discussion of “Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock” 讨论 "谁来承担通货膨胀的成本?欧元区家庭与 2021-2022 年冲击 "的讨论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103655
Klaus Adam
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices” by S. Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel 对 S. Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 合著的 "货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后:S. Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 合著的 "货币政策的长滞后和可变滞后:来自分类价格指数的证据 "一文的评论
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103653
Jonathan H. Wright
The vast majority of the literature on the effects of monetary policy shocks has considered their impacts on aggregate variables, including aggregate prices. The paper by Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel studies the impacts of monetary policy on the components of PCE. It documents considerable variability in the impulse response functions across components and finds that monetary policy shocks have large but very delayed effects on price aggregates. The finding of cross-sectional variability and its implications are very convincing, The large but delayed effects on aggregates may be more dependent on methodology and shock identification.
关于货币政策冲击影响的绝大多数文献都考虑了其对包括总价格在内的总体变量的影响。Borağan Aruoba 和 Thomas Drechsel 的论文研究了货币政策对 PCE 各组成部分的影响。论文记录了各组成部分脉冲响应函数的巨大差异,并发现货币政策冲击对价格总量的影响巨大但非常滞后。跨部门变异性的发现及其影响非常令人信服,对总量的巨大但延迟的影响可能更多取决于方法和冲击识别。
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引用次数: 0
Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks revisited: Theory and evidence 再论作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化:理论与证据
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103650
Hassan Afrouzi , Saroj Bhattarai , Edson Wu
We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.
我们提供的理论和证据表明,相对价格冲击会导致总通胀,并起到总供给冲击的作用。经验表明,外生的正能源价格冲击不仅会对总体通胀率产生积极影响,还会对美国的核心通胀率产生积极影响,同时会抑制美国的实际活动。在一个具有上下游部门和异质价格粘性的双部门货币模型中,我们分析了上游冲击如何传播到价格中。利用面板 IV 本地预测,我们表明部门 PCE 价格对能源价格冲击的反应与模型预测一致。在美国后 COVID 通胀的激励下,模型实验表明,一次性的相对价格冲击会产生与数据中观察到的类似的总体和核心通胀的持续变动,即使在没有总量松弛的情况下也是如此。该模型还强调,货币政策立场在此类冲击的传播中发挥着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation 党派预期和 COVID 时代的通货膨胀
IF 4.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103649
Carola Conces Binder , Rupal Kamdar , Jane M. Ryngaert
We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans’ expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.
根据我们的记录,在 COVID-19 时代,民主党人的通胀预期仍然非常稳定,而共和党人则不然。共和党人的预期不仅远高于通胀目标,而且对各种冲击(包括消费物价指数发布和能源价格)更加敏感。然后,我们在 MSA 层面上利用政治派别的地域差异,说明预期的部分去锚化对实际通胀产生了影响。反事实分析表明,如果所有预期都像共和党人的预期一样去锚化,那么在大流行病期间的大部分时间里,平均通胀率在同等条件下会高出 2 到 4 个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Monetary Economics
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