The Future of Dining Out: The Implications of Food Service Employment Trends on the Restaurant Industry

Abstract

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, substantial shifts have occurred in the restaurant and food service industry necessitating closer examination of the longitudinal effects on business, the economy, and broader society. As numerous restaurants and food service companies closed their doors amidst the public health crisis, millions of employees across this important – and large – part of the American economy found themselves jobless. This research seeks to uncover the sizeable impacts of the pandemic on employment trends and job insecurity in the restaurant and food service sector using longitudinal data from the United States Census Bureau. Through exploration of overall pre- and post-pandemic income trends, employment disparities across job categories in the restaurant business, and volatile metrics such as turnover and outmigration, combined into a new metric, the “Churn Rate” in occupations, the researchers offer insight into the changing trajectory of food culture and what it truly means to “dine out.” Future economic implications – for the food service value chain overall and for consumers - are summarily explored and suggestions for further research are offered.