Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

Q2 Social Sciences Politics in Central Europe Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.2478/pce-2023-0027
Małgorzata Madej
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Voting behaviour is affected by various factors and the effect varies in individual countries. Economic and geographic factors are among the major criteria taken into account in electorate segmentation. The present study analyses them in the case of the Polish presidential election in 2020, held under the circumstances of strong polarisation within the society and controversies surrounding the rule-of-law and democratic standards. The present study analyses voter turnout and results of the second round of the election, focusing on the subregional level of poviats (counties). The analysis considers macroeconomic factors (such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, average remuneration), financial condition of the local government (measured by budgetary revenues) and urbanisation (comparing the biggest cities to other counties). The findings confirm correlation between the macroeconomic parameters of the subregion and voter turnout. In the case of voting results, the hypotheses concerning macroeconomic parameters and the status of the biggest cities are confirmed, but there’s no evidence of correlation of the average remuneration on the poviat level and support for the centre-liberal candidate.
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2020年波兰总统选举中的经济参数与投票行为:波维亚层面分析
投票行为受多种因素的影响,其影响在不同国家有所不同。经济和地理因素是考虑选民划分的主要标准。本研究以2020年波兰总统选举为例进行分析,该选举是在社会内部强烈两极分化以及围绕法治和民主标准存在争议的情况下举行的。本研究分析了选民投票率和第二轮选举的结果,重点是分区域一级的县(县)。该分析考虑了宏观经济因素(如人均GDP、失业率、平均薪酬)、地方政府的财政状况(以预算收入衡量)和城市化(将大城市与其他县进行比较)。调查结果证实了该分区域的宏观经济参数与选民投票率之间的相关性。就投票结果而言,宏观经济参数和大城市地位的假设得到了证实,但没有证据表明基层平均薪酬与中自由派候选人的支持率之间存在相关性。
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来源期刊
Politics in Central Europe
Politics in Central Europe Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
20
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊介绍: POLITICS IN CENTRAL EUROPE – The Journal of the Central European Political Science Association is an independent and internationally peer-reviewed scientific journal in political science and international relations. The Journal was established in 2005 as the scientific review that publishes scientific essays, book reviews and information about conferences and other events connected with Central European issues. POLITICS IN CENTRAL EUROPE publishes politics, policy analysis, international relations and other sub-disciplines of political original, peer-reviewed manuscripts that provide scientific essays focusing on issues in comparative science, as well as original theoretical or conceptual analyses. All essays must contribute to a broad understanding of the region of Central Europe. Our goal is to give scholars from Central Europe and beyond the opportunity to present the results of their research.
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