Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

Abstract

Abstract Voting behaviour is affected by various factors and the effect varies in individual countries. Economic and geographic factors are among the major criteria taken into account in electorate segmentation. The present study analyses them in the case of the Polish presidential election in 2020, held under the circumstances of strong polarisation within the society and controversies surrounding the rule-of-law and democratic standards. The present study analyses voter turnout and results of the second round of the election, focusing on the subregional level of poviats (counties). The analysis considers macroeconomic factors (such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, average remuneration), financial condition of the local government (measured by budgetary revenues) and urbanisation (comparing the biggest cities to other counties). The findings confirm correlation between the macroeconomic parameters of the subregion and voter turnout. In the case of voting results, the hypotheses concerning macroeconomic parameters and the status of the biggest cities are confirmed, but there’s no evidence of correlation of the average remuneration on the poviat level and support for the centre-liberal candidate.