Assessment of fire risks in Russian Federation in general and its megacities using the example of Moscow and St. Petersburg, 2009–2021

Abstract

Summary. The purpose of the study is, in connection with the change in the procedure for statistical recording of fires, to assess their health consequences in the Russian Federation as a whole and its megacities using the example of Moscow and St. Petersburg for 13 years (2009–2021). Materials and methods of research. Data on the number of fires was taken from the Federal Database “Fires” [https://sites.google.com/site/statistikapozaro/]; population size – on the Rosstat website [https://rosstat.gov.ru/]. Retrospectively, fire statistics since 2009 have included fires. The results of the study were checked for normal distribution of characteristics. The dynamics of indicators was studied using the analysis of time series, for which a 2nd order polynomial trend was used, etc. Research results and their analysis. As a result of the study, the following risks were calculated for the population of the Russian Federation as a whole, Moscow and St. Petersburg: the risk of being caught in a fire; risk of dying in a fire; risk of injury in a fire; individual risk of dying in a fire per 100 thousand population; individual risk of injury in a fire per 100 thousand population. Conclusions: As a rule, the magnitude of individual fire risks in megacities, due to the coordinated work of fire crews during fire fighting, evacuation of people and a number of other circumstances, was less than in the Russian Federation as a whole; there is also a downward trend. The individual risk of death in a fire in Moscow and St. Petersburg was low for Russia; in Moscow the individual risk of injury was low, in St. Petersburg it was average. The calculated new fire risks can be used when carrying out more targeted work to reduce them in the regions of the Russian Federation.