Examining the crash risk factors associated with cycling by considering spatial and temporal disaggregation of exposure: Findings from four Dutch cities

Abstract

Cycling levels in cities keep increasing, which is accompanied with more cyclists being involved in serious road crashes. This paper aims to contribute to safer urban cycling by examining risk factors associated with cycling in the four largest Dutch cities, incorporating spatial and temporal variations in bicycle crash risk. For this purpose, the crashes and exposure metrics are analysed on an hourly temporal resolution. The results reveal that utilising an hourly temporal resolution in the exposure metrics and bicycle crash risk gives more detailed results compared to daily averages of these metrics. Moreover, the exposure to cyclists and motorised vehicles both have a significant impact on bicycle crash risk. The results also imply that separating cyclists from high-speed motorised vehicles might be more important than implementing a lower speed limit to curb the increasing severity of crashes. Despite some local differences, the overall results of the risk factors are remarkably similar across the cities, providing increased generalisability and transferability of the study. The findings indicate that concerns about the effects of increasing bicycle use and large flows of motorised vehicles on bicycle crash risk are valid, showing the importance of efforts towards improving bicycle safety in cities.