Theory of Climate Change Intensity Determination

Abstract

: The purpose of the study is the examination and detailed analysis of the methodology for assessing the intensity of climate change, its impact vectors at the global, regional and local levels, and the search for possible optimal solutions of a preventive and liquidation nature to minimise negative consequences. The study was conducted using general scientific methods of cognition, namely system analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, concretisation, and formalisation. The study examines the issues of adaptation to global climate change in Central Asia, in particular, in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study determined the degree of increase in warming indicators and its impact on degradation processes in the Aral Sea and glacial melting in the region. The use of the developed formula for assessing climate change intensity at the regional level is justified, providing a basis for preventive and eliminative actions. The study's results are practically important for optimizing the National Adaptation Plan and the National Drought Management Plan. Therewith, the priority is the synergy of the goals of environmental prevention and economic feasibility, considering modern innovative opportunities for modelling, forecasting, and the direction of the development vectors of Uzbekistan towards a positive global trend of sustainable development and the prevention of climate change.