The Necessity of New Versions of Bilateral Trade Balances and COVID-19: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach for the USA and Japan

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS Foreign Trade Review Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI:10.1177/00157325231192180
Ismet Gocer, Serdar Ongan, Huseyin Karamelikl, Charles A. Rarick
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Abstract

This study aims to reveal the need to reformulate new forms of Bilateral Trade Balances (BTBs) for a country rather than a traditional BTB. This is because the traditional BTB ratio, based on total exports and defined as the total exports/total imports ratio, cannot classify and quantify a BTB based on its economic impact content. It fails to classify because countries also export goods already imported (denotes re-export) besides exporting their domestic goods produced within the country (denotes domestic export). It also fails to quantify because, while domestic goods undergo a value-added process within a country, re-exported goods do not. In this context, for the first time, this study attempts to reformulate/reinvestigate new forms of BTBs as production-related BTB, based on domestic export and non-production-related BTB, based on re-export for the USA with Japan. Empirical findings confirm the necessity and cruciality of the proposed methodology in this study. JEL Codes: F10, F14
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新版双边贸易平衡与COVID-19的必要性:美国和日本的非线性ARDL方法
本研究旨在揭示一个国家需要重新制定新的双边贸易平衡(BTBs)形式,而不是传统的双边贸易平衡。这是因为传统的以出口总额为基础并定义为出口总额/进口总额之比的贸易顺差比率,无法根据其经济影响内容对贸易顺差进行分类和量化。由于各国除了出口其国内生产的商品(国内出口)外,还出口已经进口的商品(表示再出口),因此无法进行分类。它也无法量化,因为虽然国内商品在一个国家内经历了增值过程,但再出口商品却没有。在此背景下,本研究首次尝试重新制定/重新研究生产相关的细菌性结核,基于国内出口和非生产相关的细菌性结核,基于美国对日本的转口。实证结果证实了本研究提出的方法论的必要性和重要性。JEL代码:F10, F14
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CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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