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Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply 动荡时期的贸易:解读俄罗斯矿产资源供应中贸易政策不确定性与地缘政治之间的相互作用
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241276252
Md. Monirul Islam, Kazi Sohag
Trade policy plays a pivotal role in shaping import and export volumes within the global economy. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has posed significant challenges to the smooth flow of mineral resource trade. This study aims to analyse the consequences of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and various measures of geopolitical risk (GPR), including terror threats, war threats and nuclear threats (NCT), on Russian mineral exports (MEX). The analysis covers the period from January 2013 to December 2021. By employing sophisticated quantile regression methodologies, such as the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC) techniques, this study uncovers a compelling interaction between TPU and Russian MEX across different market conditions. Interestingly, TPU exerts a significantly positive impact on the export volumes of Russian mineral resources. In contrast, the presence of GPRs, particularly warfare and terrorism, proves to be detrimental to MEX during bullish market phases across various memory horizons. Surprisingly, NCT stimulates mineral trade during bearish market conditions, both in monthly and annual timeframes. These findings remain robust and consistent even when the CQC technique is employed. In light of these pressing geopolitical challenges, this study underscores the importance of developing sustainable mineral trade policies that foster enhanced global cohesion. It is crucial to address these challenges effectively to ensure the smooth and efficient flow of mineral resources in the international trade landscape.JEL Codes: C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27
贸易政策在影响全球经济的进出口量方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。然而,地缘政治紧张局势的升级给矿产资源贸易的顺畅流动带来了重大挑战。本研究旨在分析全球贸易政策不确定性(TPU)和包括恐怖威胁、战争威胁和核威胁(NCT)在内的各种地缘政治风险(GPR)对俄罗斯矿产出口(MEX)的影响。分析时间跨度为 2013 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月。通过采用复杂的量子回归方法,如交叉量子图(CQ)和交叉谱量子一致性(CQC)技术,本研究揭示了在不同市场条件下,TPU 和俄罗斯 MEX 之间令人信服的相互作用。有趣的是,TPU 对俄罗斯矿产资源的出口量产生了显著的积极影响。与此相反,在不同的记忆范围内,GPRs(尤其是战争和恐怖主义)的存在证明在市场看涨阶段不利于 MEX。令人惊讶的是,无论是在月度还是年度时间范围内,NCT 在市场看跌时都会刺激矿产贸易。即使采用 CQC 技术,这些研究结果仍保持稳健和一致。鉴于这些紧迫的地缘政治挑战,本研究强调了制定可持续矿产贸易政策、促进增强全球凝聚力的重要性。有效应对这些挑战,确保矿产资源在国际贸易中的顺畅高效流动至关重要:C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27
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引用次数: 0
Search Friction and Costly Entry in the Specific Factors Model 特定因素模型中的搜索摩擦和昂贵的进入成本
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241255749
Nancy H. Chau
In this article, I echo Jones (1965) and sketch a model rooted in search frictions and costly entry to demonstrate by example how central features of simple general equilibrium models can show up as ‘retranslated properties in diverse areas’. By uncovering and imparting popular understanding about these central features of simple general equilibrium models, the legacy of Professor Jones’s contributions transcends diverse disciplines in economics, extending well beyond the theory of international trade.JEL Codes: D5, F1, J6
在这篇文章中,我呼应琼斯(1965)的观点,勾勒了一个以搜索摩擦和高成本进入为基础的模型,以实例说明简单一般均衡模型的核心特征如何表现为 "在不同领域的再翻译属性"。通过揭示简单一般均衡模型的这些核心特征并向大众传授相关知识,琼斯教授的贡献超越了经济学的不同学科,其影响远远超出了国际贸易理论:D5, F1, J6
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引用次数: 0
Trade Gap and Public Debt Sustainability in Nigeria 尼日利亚的贸易差额和公共债务可持续性
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241274812
Kpeyol Kamo, Jerome Andohol, Gbatsoron Anjande, Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar
This study assessed the effect of the trade gap on public debt sustainability and the transmission from the trade gap to public debt sustainability through the revenue channel using annual data for Nigeria from 1970 to 2022. The novelty of this study lies in its investigation of factors affecting trade gap shocks and its departure from conventional debt sustainability metrics, offering a deeper understanding of the connection between trade gap and public debt sustainability. The study has been anchored on the theory of trade misinvoicing. The researchers applied the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) method, which has been estimated using the impulse response function tool. The findings established a negative effect of the trade gap on public debt sustainability. The results further show that the revenue variable is, on average, related to a larger (negative) effect of the trade gap. However, the effect of the trade gap on debt sustainability is shown to be communicated through budget deficits and not the revenue channel. The study recommends that policymakers should prioritise measures to counteract the negative impact of the trade gap on the economy. This may include boosting exports, decreasing import reliance and enhancing competitiveness in global markets.JEL Codes: F14, H62, H63
本研究利用尼日利亚 1970 年至 2022 年的年度数据,评估了贸易差额对公共债务可持续性的影响,以及贸易差额通过收入渠道对公共债务可持续性的传导。本研究的新颖之处在于它对影响贸易差额冲击的因素进行了调查,并偏离了传统的债务可持续性指标,从而使人们对贸易差额与公共债务可持续性之间的联系有了更深入的了解。本研究以贸易不实理论为基础。研究人员采用了结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法,并使用脉冲响应函数工具对其进行了估算。研究结果表明,贸易差额对公共债务的可持续性有负面影响。结果进一步表明,平均而言,收入变量与贸易差额的较大(负)影响相关。然而,贸易差额对债务可持续性的影响是通过预算赤字而不是收入渠道传递的。研究建议,决策者应优先采取措施,消除贸易差距对经济的负面影响。这可能包括促进出口、减少对进口的依赖以及提高在全球市场的竞争力:F14, H62, H63
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引用次数: 0
Imported Inputs and Export Performance: A Gravity Analysis 进口投入与出口绩效:引力分析
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241255743
Erick Kitenge, Sajal Lahiri
Based on input/output tables that contain disaggregated data from 45 industries grouped into 16 sectors from 1995 to 2020 across 66 countries, we carry out a gravity analysis to examine how imported inputs affect bilateral exports. In terms of econometric methodology, we use pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood (PPML) as well as Instrumental-Variable Tobit methods. Our results consistently show a positive and significant effect of imported inputs on bilateral exports.JEL Codes: F10, F40
投入产出表包含 1995 年至 2020 年 66 个国家 16 个部门 45 个行业的分类数据,我们根据投入产出表进行引力分析,研究进口投入如何影响双边出口。在计量经济学方法方面,我们使用了伪泊松最大似然法(PPML)和工具变量托比特法。我们的结果一致显示,进口投入对双边出口有积极而显著的影响:F10, F40
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引用次数: 0
Book review: Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ramesh Chandra Das, and Achintya Ray (Eds.), COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Inequality: Reflections in Labour Market, Business and Social Sectors 书评:Rajib Bhattacharyya、Ramesh Chandra Das 和 Achintya Ray(编),《COVID-19 大流行病与全球不平等》:劳动力市场、商业和社会领域的影响
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241258790
Debashis Chakraborty
Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ramesh Chandra Das, and Achintya Ray (Eds.), COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Inequality: Reflections in Labour Market, Business and Social Sectors (Singapore: Springer Nature, 2023), 333 pp. €128.39 (Hardcover), ISBN 978-981-99-4404-0.
Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ramesh Chandra Das, and Achintya Ray (Eds.), COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Inequality:Reflections in Labour Market, Business and Social Sectors》(新加坡:施普林格自然出版社,2023 年),333 页,128.39 欧元(精装),ISBN 978-981-99-4404-0。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Trade Policy in a Cournot Oligopoly with Convex Cost 具有凸成本的库诺寡头垄断中的战略贸易政策
IF 1.3 Q4 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241266040
Arijit Mukherjee, Uday Bhanu Sinha
We provide a simple reason for export tax in a third-country model of strategic trade policy. We show that the optimal policy under Cournot competition could be export tax in the presence of convex production costs. This happens whether or not the import competing country imposes import tariff.JEL Codes: F12, F13
我们为第三国战略贸易政策模型中的出口税提供了一个简单的理由。我们表明,在存在凸生产成本的情况下,库诺竞争下的最优政策可能是出口税。无论进口竞争国是否征收进口关税,这种情况都会发生:F12, F13
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引用次数: 0
Some Reflections on Two Significant Contributions of Ron Jones: Specificity of Factors and Non-traded Goods 对罗恩-琼斯两项重要贡献的一些思考:要素和非贸易品的特殊性
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241255746
R. Acharyya
This article pays tribute to Professor Ronald W. Jones by reflecting upon how two significant, yet simple and elegant, analytical structures developed by him have been used by researchers to address a wide set of issues relevant for developed and developing countries alike and hold the potential to analyse some unexplored issues of relevance in the future. One is the specific-factor model, and the other is the composite-traded and non-traded model that came out of his Frank Graham Lecture in 1976. These two important competitive general equilibrium structures provide significant and relevant departures from the Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson models, highlighting the role of both factor scarcity and local demand. JEL Codes: F11, F13, F21
本文旨在向罗纳德-W-琼斯教授致敬,探讨研究人员如何利用他开发的两个重要而又简单优雅的分析结构来解决与发达国家和发展中国家相关的一系列广泛问题,并有可能在未来分析一些尚未探索的相关问题。一个是特定要素模型,另一个是他在 1976 年的弗兰克-格雷厄姆演讲中提出的贸易和非贸易复合模型。这两个重要的竞争性一般均衡结构与李嘉图模型和赫克歇尔-欧林-萨缪尔森模型有显著的不同,突出了要素稀缺性和本地需求的作用。JEL Codes:F11, F13, F21
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Trade Liberalisation and MSME Classification on Productivity of Indian Manufacturing Firms 贸易自由化和中小微企业分类对印度制造业企业生产力的影响
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-19 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241239722
Subhadip Mukherjee, Rupa Chanda
This article examines the effects of tariff and non-tariff reductions on firm-level productivity of large as well as Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in India’s manufacturing sector for the 1999–2009 period. We calculate input and final goods tariffs, effective rates of protection and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for broad product groups using information from India’s Exim Policy of 1997–2003 and 2004–2009 to examine this impact. We use a balanced as well as unbalanced firm-level panel data set, while accounting for firm, industry, state and time-specific factors. By using fixed effect models and Heckman’s two-step estimation procedure, we find that trade liberalisation is associated with improved firm-level productivity for large firms but not in the case of MSMEs. We posit that this might be due to the relative disadvantages that Indian MSMEs face which prevent them from benefiting from trade liberalisation. We also find that productivity gains arising from the sourcing of imported inputs have been greater than those arising from increased product competition and that NTB liberalisation has had a greater impact compared to tariff liberalisation on firm-level productivity. Changes in MSME legislation and the classification of firms are also found to have a bearing on firm performance. Our study contributes to the literature by confirming the need to focus specifically on constraints faced by MSMEs if they are to benefit from trade liberalisation. It highlights the importance of liberalising trade in intermediates as well as the role of MSME classification in enabling productivity gains.JEL Codes: L6, D24, L1, F13
本文研究了 1999-2009 年间关税和非关税削减对印度制造业大型企业和中小微企业生产力的影响。我们利用 1997-2003 年和 2004-2009 年印度进出口政策中的信息,计算了广泛产品类别的投入品和最终产品关税、有效保护率和非关税壁垒,以研究这种影响。我们使用了平衡和非平衡的企业级面板数据集,同时考虑了企业、行业、邦和特定时间的因素。通过使用固定效应模型和赫克曼两步估算程序,我们发现贸易自由化与大型企业生产率的提高有关,但与中小微企业生产率的提高无关。我们认为,这可能是由于印度中小微企业所面临的相对劣势阻碍了它们从贸易自由化中获益。我们还发现,采购进口投入品所带来的生产率收益大于产品竞争加剧所带来的收益,而且与关税自由化相比,非关税壁垒自由化对企业生产率的影响更大。研究还发现,中小微企业立法和企业分类的变化对企业绩效也有影响。我们的研究证实,如果中小微企业要从贸易自由化中获益,就必须特别关注它们所面临的制约因素,从而为相关文献做出贡献。它强调了中间产品贸易自由化的重要性以及中小微企业分类在提高生产力方面的作用:L6, D24, L1, F13
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引用次数: 0
The Extent, Excessiveness and Sustainability of Afghanistan’s Current Account 阿富汗经常账户的规模、过度性和可持续性
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241239724
Abdul Hadi Sultani, U. Faisal
This article empirically investigates the extent, excessiveness and sustainability of Afghanistan’s current account (CA) deficits using quarterly data from 2004-Q2 to 2019-Q4. The framework of this article is the intertemporal approach to the CA using the present value model. First, a descriptive analysis of Afghanistan’s CA is conducted. Next, a bivariate vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is applied to estimate the optimal CA of the economy, which can be compared to the actual one to determine how excessiveness the actual CA is relative to the optimal one. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Johnson co-integration tests are applied to examine the necessary and sufficient conditions for the sustainability of the CA. Findings indicate that Afghanistan’s actual CA deficits are excessive and too variant relative to the optimal one; therefore, the deficit is considered problematic. The empirical results further disclose that Afghanistan’s CA is unsustainable. The lack of co-integration between real net output and real private consumption and between exports and imports suggests that the unsustainability is mainly due to the weakness of domestic production in satisfying internal demand and the failure of real export volume to equilibrate the trade balance. Hence, this study recommends increasing the level of domestic output, and reduction in imports supported by improvements in saving rate, infrastructure and export to improve the CA.JEL Codes: F14, F32, F39, C22
本文利用 2004 年第二季度至 2019 年第四季度的季度数据,对阿富汗经常账户赤字的程度、过度性和可持续性进行了实证研究。本文的框架是使用现值模型对经常账户赤字进行跨期分析。首先,对阿富汗的赤字进行了描述性分析。然后,运用双变量向量自回归(VAR)模型估算出阿富汗经济的最优现值,并将其与实际现值进行比较,以确定实际现值相对于最优现值的过剩程度。应用增强型 Dickey-Fuller 和 Johnson 协整检验来研究 CA 可持续性的必要和充分条件。研究结果表明,阿富汗的实际赤字相对于最优赤字而言过高且变化过大;因此,赤字被认为是有问题的。实证结果进一步表明,阿富汗的赤字是不可持续的。实际净产出和实际私人消费之间以及出口和进口之间缺乏协整关系,这表明不可持续的主要原因是国内生产无法满足内部需求,以及实际出口量无法平衡贸易平衡。因此,本研究建议提高国内产出水平,并通过提高储蓄率、改善基础设施和出口来减少进口,以改善长春市的状况:F14, F32, F39, C22
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引用次数: 0
Trade Facilitation and Global Value Chain Participation: Cross-country Analysis 贸易便利化与全球价值链参与:跨国分析
IF 1.3 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-16 DOI: 10.1177/00157325241239720
Ketan Reddy, Subash Sasidharan
In this article, we examine the role of trade facilitation in fostering firm participation in global value chains (GVCs). We use cross-sectional data for 115 economies spanning 2006–2018 sourced from World Bank Enterprise Surveys. We employ four trade indicators which are as follows: customs, regulation quality, loans and digitalization proxying for trade facilitation measures and we correct for reverse causality using the instrumental variable approach. Our empirical findings highlight that customs requirements deter GVC participation of the firm. Further, adhering to government regulations, having access to loans and digital communication adoption fosters supply chain integration of the firm. The present study also finds favourable heterogenous effects of trade facilitation on GVC participation of less productive firms and larger firms. Our findings are robust to alternative methods of endogeneity correction and GVC definitions.JEL Codes: F1, F19, F14
本文研究了贸易便利化在促进企业参与全球价值链(GVC)中的作用。我们使用了世界银行企业调查提供的 2006-2018 年 115 个经济体的横截面数据。我们采用了以下四个贸易指标:海关、监管质量、贷款和数字化,作为贸易便利化措施的代理指标,并使用工具变量法修正反向因果关系。我们的实证研究结果表明,海关要求阻碍了企业对全球价值链的参与。此外,遵守政府法规、获得贷款和采用数字通信技术都会促进企业的供应链整合。本研究还发现,贸易便利化对生产率较低的企业和规模较大的企业参与全球价值链具有有利的异质性影响。我们的研究结果对其他内生性校正方法和全球价值链定义都是稳健的:F1, F19, F14
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引用次数: 0
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Foreign Trade Review
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