A probabilistic reasoning approach to analyze the severity of single-vehicle crashes at mid-ramp locations

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Abstract

Freeway ramps are one of the roadway elements that are considered as crash-prone sites with relatively more crashes per mile than other freeway segments. Among other crash types that occurred on freeway ramps, single-vehicle crashes have been found to be more severe. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the severity of single-vehicle crashes on freeway ramps is essential in improving the safety of our limited-access facilities. This study adopted a discrete Bayesian network (BN) approach to explore the probabilistic relationship among the potential factors associated with the severity of single-vehicle crashes at mid-ramp locations. The analysis was based on 6 041 single-vehicle crashes that occurred at the mid-ramp locations in California from 2009 to 2017. The findings indicated that ramp type, ramp traffic volume, road surface condition, and time of day were directly associated with the severity of single-vehicle crashes at the mid-ramp locations. The interdependency of off-ramps, ramp AADT of less than 13 000 vehicles per day, dry road surface condition, and off-peak hours were associated with the highest risk of fatal/severe injury crashes involving a single-vehicle. The study findings could potentially be used by transportation agencies in planning and implementing several strategies to improve the safety of freeway ramps.
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分析匝道中段单车碰撞严重程度的概率推理方法
与其他高速公路路段相比,高速公路匝道是每英里碰撞事故相对较多的易发路段之一。在高速公路坡道上发生的其他撞车类型中,单车撞车事故更为严重。因此,了解影响高速公路匝道上单车碰撞严重程度的因素对于提高我们有限通行设施的安全性至关重要。本研究采用离散贝叶斯网络(BN)方法探讨了与匝道中间位置单车碰撞严重程度相关的潜在因素之间的概率关系。分析基于 2009 年至 2017 年在加利福尼亚州中间匝道位置发生的 6 041 起单车碰撞事故。研究结果表明,匝道类型、匝道交通量、路面状况和一天中的时间与中间匝道位置单车碰撞事故的严重程度直接相关。非匝道的相互依存性、匝道每日平均车流量少于 13 000 辆车、干燥的路面状况以及非高峰时段与涉及单车的致命/重伤交通事故的最高风险相关。交通机构在规划和实施改善高速公路匝道安全的若干策略时,有可能会用到这些研究结果。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology
International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology Engineering-Civil and Structural Engineering
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
105
审稿时长
88 days
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