Assessment of Extreme Precipitation for Developing Agricultural Adaptation Strategy in the Selo Watershed Area

Abstract

The ongoing climate change resulting from the effects of global warming is manifested through increased variability and a rise in extreme precipitation events. Given this situation, it becomes imperative for farmers to adapt to these changes to ensure the long-term sustainability of their businesses. Therefore, this research aimed to assess extreme precipitation for planning adaptation strategies for agricultural water resources in the Selo watershed, Tanah Datar Regency, West Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation and Stations (CHIRPS) data were used to accomplish this, spanning 1981 to 2020. A set of indices recommended by ETCCDI, including PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, R95p, R99p, SDII, R10mm, R20mm, R30mm, and R40mm were employed to assess extreme precipitation. Climate Data Operator (CDO) and GrADS were conducted for downscale and plotting data. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall test was conducted to determine the significance of change trends in the indices. R-Climdex was used to determine the extreme event based on the data used. The results showed that all indices indicated wet conditions during the period 1981-2020. The topographic characteristics of the watershed served as a basis for selecting suitable adaptation strategies within the agricultural water resources sector. One potential approach involves integrating conservation-based adaptation practices with comprehensive watershed management techniques. Factors such as the area’s sensitivity to changes in the total intensity or frequency of precipitation, combined with the local environmental conditions, can be considered in determining the optimal adaptation approach.