USING AN AGENT-BASED MODEL TO SIMULATE THE IMPACTS OF AN APPLIED DYNAMIC ADAPTIVE PATHWAYS PLAN

Abstract

Coastal cities and towns are at risk from climate change and relative sea level rise (RSLR). There is uncertainty in how and when these will impact and how to adapt, meaning there is a need for flexible tools to help decision-making and decision-makers. Decision-makers have many available actions to respond to sea level rise and other coastal hazards, but there is uncertainty around which action to take in different situations and when is the best time to act. We use agent-based modelling (ABM) to investigate multi-hazard interaction and Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) to explore the impact of an applied DAPP to work with the deep uncertainty around urban coastal systems. We developed an ABM, which included five physical hazards, whose occurrence in time was influenced by six plausible future shared socio-economic pathway / representative concentration pathway (SSP/RCP) scenarios.