Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model

Abstract

This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.