Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026994-2
Veniamin Livchits
The article is devoted to the problem of high inter-regional differentiation of the economic area of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the research is due to the need to understand the role of the industrial sector in the economic inequality of regions. It is necessary for the systematization of the state regional policy and strategic forecasting of the innovative development of regionally oriented production systems. The purpose of the research was to identify an empirical relationship between the level of economic activity of industrial regions and their sectoral specifics. Based on a large array of statistical data, a long-term increase in the economic inequality of the regions of the Russian Federation and a high level of inter-regional differentiation are shown. During the research, the basic methods of mathematical statistics were used. The regression analysis allowed us to obtain a statistically significant confirmation of the hypothesis: the economic inequality of the regions is largely due to the nature of the industries localized on their territory. Some empirical patterns were also identified and statistically substantiated. It was established that the economy of industrially oriented regions depends mainly on extractive industries: the impact on the economic activity of the regions of the factor of localization of extractive industries is significantly (more than five times) higher than that of manufacturing industries. The results allowed us to conclude that the current trends may lead to further strengthening of inter-regional differentiation of the country's economic space. Also, the current situation entails the threat of deindustrialization of those regions that are now characterized by the concentration of high-tech industries. The research provides additional data support for industrial and structural policy priorities.
{"title":"Regional differences in the Russian Federation: An empirical analysis of the influence of terri-torial localization of industry sectors on the level of regional economic activity","authors":"Veniamin Livchits","doi":"10.31857/s042473880026994-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880026994-2","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the problem of high inter-regional differentiation of the economic area of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the research is due to the need to understand the role of the industrial sector in the economic inequality of regions. It is necessary for the systematization of the state regional policy and strategic forecasting of the innovative development of regionally oriented production systems. The purpose of the research was to identify an empirical relationship between the level of economic activity of industrial regions and their sectoral specifics. Based on a large array of statistical data, a long-term increase in the economic inequality of the regions of the Russian Federation and a high level of inter-regional differentiation are shown. During the research, the basic methods of mathematical statistics were used. The regression analysis allowed us to obtain a statistically significant confirmation of the hypothesis: the economic inequality of the regions is largely due to the nature of the industries localized on their territory. Some empirical patterns were also identified and statistically substantiated. It was established that the economy of industrially oriented regions depends mainly on extractive industries: the impact on the economic activity of the regions of the factor of localization of extractive industries is significantly (more than five times) higher than that of manufacturing industries. The results allowed us to conclude that the current trends may lead to further strengthening of inter-regional differentiation of the country's economic space. Also, the current situation entails the threat of deindustrialization of those regions that are now characterized by the concentration of high-tech industries. The research provides additional data support for industrial and structural policy priorities.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135839876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880024435-7
Lada Kuletskaya
In this article we assess the role of mutual influence of voters living in neighboring territories and the influence of socio-economic factors on the example of voting results for the main candidate in the 2018 elections in Russia. We claim that spatial factors (neighboring of municipalities, regions and belonging of municipalities to the same region) significantly affect the results of voting for the main candidate in each municipality. To confirm this hypothesis, we evaluated several different specifications of the Durbin model, which include dummy variables for the region and other spatial factors, and compared the results with the specifications of the model without taking into account spatial factors. We confirmed main hypothesis: the results of voting depend on the region in which the municipality is included, and, in addition, there is a positive spatial autocorrelation (the results of voting in neighboring municipalities depend on each other). The absence of consideration of spatial factors reduces the quality of regression fitting, there coefficient estimates are biased, and the qualitative picture of the results obtained is distorted. We also showed that the economic situation of the region also affects the results of the voting: economically stronger the municipality received higher share of votes for the main candidate.
{"title":"Spatial Econometric Approach to Modeling Election Results in Russia: Municipal Level","authors":"Lada Kuletskaya","doi":"10.31857/s042473880024435-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880024435-7","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we assess the role of mutual influence of voters living in neighboring territories and the influence of socio-economic factors on the example of voting results for the main candidate in the 2018 elections in Russia. We claim that spatial factors (neighboring of municipalities, regions and belonging of municipalities to the same region) significantly affect the results of voting for the main candidate in each municipality. To confirm this hypothesis, we evaluated several different specifications of the Durbin model, which include dummy variables for the region and other spatial factors, and compared the results with the specifications of the model without taking into account spatial factors. We confirmed main hypothesis: the results of voting depend on the region in which the municipality is included, and, in addition, there is a positive spatial autocorrelation (the results of voting in neighboring municipalities depend on each other). The absence of consideration of spatial factors reduces the quality of regression fitting, there coefficient estimates are biased, and the qualitative picture of the results obtained is distorted. We also showed that the economic situation of the region also affects the results of the voting: economically stronger the municipality received higher share of votes for the main candidate.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135801676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026992-0
Viacheslav Karmalita
В статье предлагается подход к формализации количественной зависимости между базовой ставкой и вариациями дохода, базирующийся на стохастическом описании инвестиций Установление этой зависимости обеспечивает возможность управления доходами в соответствии с принятым целеполаганием. В частности, рассматривается пример преодоления циклического сжатия дохода соответствующим изменением базовой ставки. Предложена стратегия управления доходами, в основе которой лежит установленная функциональная связь между составляющими инвестиций и базовой ставкой. Показано, что при обратно пропорциональной зависимости долгосрочного тренда инвестиций от значений ставки, траектория цикла зависит через корень квадратный от ее значения. Поэтому изменение базовой ставки приводит к разнонаправленным результатам в значениях тренда и траектории цикла. Этот факт послужил основой для разработки алгоритма преодоления циклического снижения доходов. Модель цикла в виде случайных колебаний упругой системы под действием белого шума позволила получить количественную оценку вариации базовой ставки, обеспечивающей требуемое изменение величины дохода. Поскольку рассмотренный подход основан на наиболее вероятной траектории цикла, то полученные выражения будут приводить и к наиболее вероятным оценкам. Возможность применять предлагаемый подход к анализу поведения цикла продемонстрирован на примере текущих отклонений доходов США.
{"title":"Управление базовой ставкой с целью противодействия циклическому сокращению доходов","authors":"Viacheslav Karmalita","doi":"10.31857/s042473880026992-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880026992-0","url":null,"abstract":"В статье предлагается подход к формализации количественной зависимости между базовой ставкой и вариациями дохода, базирующийся на стохастическом описании инвестиций Установление этой зависимости обеспечивает возможность управления доходами в соответствии с принятым целеполаганием. В частности, рассматривается пример преодоления циклического сжатия дохода соответствующим изменением базовой ставки. Предложена стратегия управления доходами, в основе которой лежит установленная функциональная связь между составляющими инвестиций и базовой ставкой. Показано, что при обратно пропорциональной зависимости долгосрочного тренда инвестиций от значений ставки, траектория цикла зависит через корень квадратный от ее значения. Поэтому изменение базовой ставки приводит к разнонаправленным результатам в значениях тренда и траектории цикла. Этот факт послужил основой для разработки алгоритма преодоления циклического снижения доходов. Модель цикла в виде случайных колебаний упругой системы под действием белого шума позволила получить количественную оценку вариации базовой ставки, обеспечивающей требуемое изменение величины дохода. Поскольку рассмотренный подход основан на наиболее вероятной траектории цикла, то полученные выражения будут приводить и к наиболее вероятным оценкам. Возможность применять предлагаемый подход к анализу поведения цикла продемонстрирован на примере текущих отклонений доходов США.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135801680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880027006-5
Andranick Akopov
This article presents a new simulation model of a multi-agent socio-economic system (MA-SES), in which individual, including interproduct interactions are implemented. Within the MA-SES, the models of agent-producers and agents-consumers behaviour with their objective functions are studied. In particular, producers follow their own production strategies by choosing the moments for introducing new fixed assets and labour resources. Consumers participate in barter and monetary deals by interacting with other agents. The states of readiness of agents-producers to introduce new fixed assets and labour resources, as well as the states of readiness of agents-consumers to complete barter and monetary deals are set up for each time moment using lognormal distributions with given characteristics, which are the control parameters of the system. Important bi-objective optimisation problems are formulated for ensembles of agents-producers and agents-consumers. A new parallel hybrid genetic algorithm (MORCGA-MOPSO) was developed, in particular, providing the possibility of seeking the Pareto-optimal solutions for maximising the average (over an ensemble of agents) profit and the total number of agent-producers’ buyers, as well as maximising the average utility and monetary savings of agents-consumers. The parameters of log-normal distributions that determine the states of interacting agents that make individual decisions are computed. The features of the behavioural strategies of producers and consumers are determined, which make possible to achieve an improvement in the values of the objective functions through controlling the dynamics of the input of production resources and choosing the preferred types of interproduct interactions, in particular, barter, monetary etc.
{"title":"Optimization of behaviour strategies within the simulation model of a multi-agent socio-economic system","authors":"Andranick Akopov","doi":"10.31857/s042473880027006-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880027006-5","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a new simulation model of a multi-agent socio-economic system (MA-SES), in which individual, including interproduct interactions are implemented. Within the MA-SES, the models of agent-producers and agents-consumers behaviour with their objective functions are studied. In particular, producers follow their own production strategies by choosing the moments for introducing new fixed assets and labour resources. Consumers participate in barter and monetary deals by interacting with other agents. The states of readiness of agents-producers to introduce new fixed assets and labour resources, as well as the states of readiness of agents-consumers to complete barter and monetary deals are set up for each time moment using lognormal distributions with given characteristics, which are the control parameters of the system. Important bi-objective optimisation problems are formulated for ensembles of agents-producers and agents-consumers. A new parallel hybrid genetic algorithm (MORCGA-MOPSO) was developed, in particular, providing the possibility of seeking the Pareto-optimal solutions for maximising the average (over an ensemble of agents) profit and the total number of agent-producers’ buyers, as well as maximising the average utility and monetary savings of agents-consumers. The parameters of log-normal distributions that determine the states of interacting agents that make individual decisions are computed. The features of the behavioural strategies of producers and consumers are determined, which make possible to achieve an improvement in the values of the objective functions through controlling the dynamics of the input of production resources and choosing the preferred types of interproduct interactions, in particular, barter, monetary etc.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135801675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026991-9
Marina Mikitchuk
The article presents the pioneer cross-country study results of the formation factors of benefit-oriented official development assistance (ODA), which is defined as aid sent by a donor disinterestedly and in order to improve the welfare of the recipient. In the preliminary data review an original measure of benefit-oriented assistance is proposed, which allows to study transfers in conditions of mixing motives. Subsequent regression analysis of panel data on 18 donors of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for 2010–2019 shows that a benefit-oriented motive is primarily ensured by a high degree of trust, the prevalence of altruistic behavior in society and the socio-economic welfare of the donor country. There is evidence to suggest that ancillary factors of disinterested assistance are the democratic government structure, tolerance and life satisfaction; in addition, political participation as a factor of altruism has an indirect effect on the motivation of the donor. Calculations also show that an increase in the per capita GDP of the donor can contribute to both benefit-oriented and selfish motives of ODA, while other factors do not demonstrate a similar integral effect. The results obtained confirm and clarify the theoretical conclusions of the philosophy of collaboration regarding the genesis and dissemination of collaborative relationships. These findings can be used to improve the principles and mechanisms of international assistance as well as to forecast the dynamics of benefit-oriented transfers.
{"title":"Determinants of official benefit-oriented aid to developing countries","authors":"Marina Mikitchuk","doi":"10.31857/s042473880026991-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880026991-9","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the pioneer cross-country study results of the formation factors of benefit-oriented official development assistance (ODA), which is defined as aid sent by a donor disinterestedly and in order to improve the welfare of the recipient. In the preliminary data review an original measure of benefit-oriented assistance is proposed, which allows to study transfers in conditions of mixing motives. Subsequent regression analysis of panel data on 18 donors of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for 2010–2019 shows that a benefit-oriented motive is primarily ensured by a high degree of trust, the prevalence of altruistic behavior in society and the socio-economic welfare of the donor country. There is evidence to suggest that ancillary factors of disinterested assistance are the democratic government structure, tolerance and life satisfaction; in addition, political participation as a factor of altruism has an indirect effect on the motivation of the donor. Calculations also show that an increase in the per capita GDP of the donor can contribute to both benefit-oriented and selfish motives of ODA, while other factors do not demonstrate a similar integral effect. The results obtained confirm and clarify the theoretical conclusions of the philosophy of collaboration regarding the genesis and dissemination of collaborative relationships. These findings can be used to improve the principles and mechanisms of international assistance as well as to forecast the dynamics of benefit-oriented transfers.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135801681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026990-8
Alexander Varshavsky
The article examines the dependence of the middle class size on the level of income inequality. For this purpose, the indicators that characterize the size of the middle class (the share of income of the middle class as a whole and the shares of its different strata) are analyzed. For this the analytical expressions were used which were found using the income distribution model based on the finite functional sequence that was developed by the author and described earlier in several articles. The results obtained in the work show a certain stability of the income share of the middle class as a whole in a rather wide range of the level of income inequality. At the same time, it is shown that there are significant differences in the dependence of the income shares of various middle class strata on the level of inequality. With the help of analytical expressions obtained on the basis of the developed model, a diagram is constructed for an approximate assessment of the middle class size depending on the level of income inequality. This diagram allows to estimate the size of the middle class for its various definitions in relation to the median income. Based on the results obtained, some variants of the possible reaction of the middle class as a whole and its individual strata to the increase in income inequality were considered. It is concluded that the middle class, being a source of stability, at the same time can become the initiator of the income inequality reduction when the inequality level is very high.
{"title":"The middle class: An analysis of the dependence of size on the level of income inequality","authors":"Alexander Varshavsky","doi":"10.31857/s042473880026990-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880026990-8","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the dependence of the middle class size on the level of income inequality. For this purpose, the indicators that characterize the size of the middle class (the share of income of the middle class as a whole and the shares of its different strata) are analyzed. For this the analytical expressions were used which were found using the income distribution model based on the finite functional sequence that was developed by the author and described earlier in several articles. The results obtained in the work show a certain stability of the income share of the middle class as a whole in a rather wide range of the level of income inequality. At the same time, it is shown that there are significant differences in the dependence of the income shares of various middle class strata on the level of inequality. With the help of analytical expressions obtained on the basis of the developed model, a diagram is constructed for an approximate assessment of the middle class size depending on the level of income inequality. This diagram allows to estimate the size of the middle class for its various definitions in relation to the median income. Based on the results obtained, some variants of the possible reaction of the middle class as a whole and its individual strata to the increase in income inequality were considered. It is concluded that the middle class, being a source of stability, at the same time can become the initiator of the income inequality reduction when the inequality level is very high.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135838500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026984-1
Jie Wu
В последние годы, китайские и российские ученые, сохраняя в качестве основы традиционную теорию стоимости, — трудовую теории стоимости и теорию прибавочной стоимости, а также гипотезу Джевонса, Теслы и Фоули — использовали математическую парадигму теоретической механики для создания системы математических моделей экономики, которую назвали новой теорией стоимости. Совместимая с традиционной теорией, новая теория стоимости выдвигает идею о том, что потребляемая в процессе производства рабочая сила определяет стоимость товара, а сила притяжения рабочей силы определяет оценку ее самой. В процессе производства постоянный и переменный капитал – как кинетическая и потенциальная виды энергии – переходят друг в друга, согласно теореме сохранения стоимости, что играет важнейшую роль в создании стоимости и добавленной стоимости продуктов. Эти теоретические положения имеют большое значение, поскольку превращают традиционную теорию стоимости в самодостаточную логическую систему в виде новой теории стоимости, которая вобрала рациональные элементы как из классической экономики, основанной на трудовой теории стоимости, и теории прибавочной стоимости, так и из неоклассической экономики с ее законом убывающей предельной полезности. В этой части статьи мы обращаемся к этой проблематике, исследуя происхождение закона убывающей предельной полезности.
{"title":"Анализ маржинализма. Часть 2","authors":"Jie Wu","doi":"10.31857/s042473880026984-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31857/s042473880026984-1","url":null,"abstract":"В последние годы, китайские и российские ученые, сохраняя в качестве основы традиционную теорию стоимости, — трудовую теории стоимости и теорию прибавочной стоимости, а также гипотезу Джевонса, Теслы и Фоули — использовали математическую парадигму теоретической механики для создания системы математических моделей экономики, которую назвали новой теорией стоимости. Совместимая с традиционной теорией, новая теория стоимости выдвигает идею о том, что потребляемая в процессе производства рабочая сила определяет стоимость товара, а сила притяжения рабочей силы определяет оценку ее самой. В процессе производства постоянный и переменный капитал – как кинетическая и потенциальная виды энергии – переходят друг в друга, согласно теореме сохранения стоимости, что играет важнейшую роль в создании стоимости и добавленной стоимости продуктов. Эти теоретические положения имеют большое значение, поскольку превращают традиционную теорию стоимости в самодостаточную логическую систему в виде новой теории стоимости, которая вобрала рациональные элементы как из классической экономики, основанной на трудовой теории стоимости, и теории прибавочной стоимости, так и из неоклассической экономики с ее законом убывающей предельной полезности. В этой части статьи мы обращаемся к этой проблематике, исследуя происхождение закона убывающей предельной полезности.","PeriodicalId":41290,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomika i Matematiceskie Metody-Economics and Mathematical Methods","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135801673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880023259-3
Pingping He
This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.
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Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880026989-6
Alexander Stavchikov
The article summarizes the moments associated with design and implementation of creating and organizing the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences (RAS), as one of the events on the path of the economics and mathematics development in economic science in the USSR and Russia. The main founders of this trend, as well as the Institute, and their followers, brought up within the walls of CEMI, are indicated. The role of the Presidium of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR in the creation of scientific team of the Institute and its research areas is noted. Briefly outlined the main trends of scientific research and their improvement in the process of functioning of the Institute, brief results of scientific research in the areas are noted. CEMI activities influenced on development of the economic and mathematical methods in the country; on education; on use of EMM and VT in science, economics and management. The status and foreign awards for the scientific achievements of the Institute and its employees in different years are given.
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Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.31857/s042473880023258-2
Pingping He
This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.
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