Integrating geographic data and the SCS-CN method with LSTM networks for enhanced runoff forecasting in a complex mountain basin

Abstract

Introduction In complex mountain basins, hydrological forecasting poses a formidable challenge due to the intricacies of runoff generation processes and the limitations of available data. This study explores the enhancement of short-term runoff forecasting models through the utilization of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Methods To achieve this, we employed feature engineering (FE) strategies, focusing on geographic data and the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Our investigation was conducted in a 3,390 km 2 basin, employing the GSMaP-NRT satellite precipitation product (SPP) to develop forecasting models with lead times of 1, 6, and 11 h. These lead times were selected to address the needs of near-real-time forecasting, flash flood prediction, and basin concentration time assessment, respectively. Results and discussion Our findings demonstrate an improvement in the efficiency of LSTM forecasting models across all lead times, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.93 (1 h), 0.77 (6 h), and 0.67 (11 h). Notably, these results are on par with studies relying on ground-based precipitation data. This methodology not only showcases the potential for advanced data-driven runoff models but also underscores the importance of incorporating available geographic information into precipitation-ungauged hydrological systems. The insights derived from this study offer valuable tools for hydrologists and researchers seeking to enhance the accuracy of hydrological forecasting in complex mountain basins.