All the Sultan’s Men: Regime Type, Insecurity, and the Shuffling of Governors

Abstract

Why do some political rulers engage in frequent shuffling of their governors while others allow their governors to serve longer? We argue that shuffling of governors reflects the level of a ruler’s perception of insecurity. Building on perspectives about situational origins of distrust and paranoid cognition, we argue that democratic leaders, characterized by higher levels of existential security, practice less frequent shuffling of governors compared to authoritarian ones. We also suggest that governors in localities characterized by higher levels of ethnic conflict and poor electoral performance by a ruling government are more likely to be replaced. Utilizing an original dataset of all Ottoman and Turkish governors from 1875 to 2019, our empirical analyses show that governors last longer under more democratic governments, in provinces with lower levels of ethnic diversity conflict, and stronger electoral support for the government.