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Hitting the Sweet Spot? The Electoral Consequences of Supporting Minority Governments 击中甜蜜点?支持少数派政府的选举后果
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241271210
Maria Thürk, H. Klüver
Does supporting a minority cabinet harm a party’s electoral prospects? While minority governments have become more common in recent years, the electoral implications for parties supporting such cabinets remain unclear. Previous research suggests that support parties enjoy a favorable position, exerting policy influence while avoiding electoral losses associated with joining the government. However, we argue that this is only true for support parties without written agreements, as their support is less visible to voters. To test our argument, we compiled a novel dataset on the electoral performance of 563 parties in 304 elections across 31 countries since 1980. We estimate the effect of being a support party on subsequent electoral performance. Our findings indicate that parties which declare support perform better electorally than junior partners, while contract support parties do not. These insights shed light on the relationship between minority governments and electoral competition amidst growing party system fragmentation.
支持少数党内阁是否会损害政党的选举前景?虽然近年来少数党政府越来越常见,但支持此类内阁的政党的选举影响仍不明确。以往的研究表明,支持党享有有利地位,既能施加政策影响,又能避免加入政府带来的选举损失。但我们认为,这只适用于没有书面协议的支持党,因为他们的支持对选民来说不太明显。为了验证我们的论点,我们汇编了一个新的数据集,该数据集记录了自 1980 年以来 31 个国家 304 次选举中 563 个政党的选举表现。我们估算了作为支持党对后续选举表现的影响。我们的研究结果表明,宣布支持的政党在选举中的表现要好于次要政党,而签约支持的政党则不然。这些见解揭示了在政党体系日益分化的情况下,少数党政府与选举竞争之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
How Education Policies Shape Political Inequality: Analyzing Policy Feedback Effects in Germany 教育政策如何影响政治不平等:分析德国的政策反馈效应
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241269876
Susanne Garritzmann, Nadja Wehl
Education is one of the strongest predictors of political participation at the individual level. However, the association between education and participation varies across countries, which previous studies attribute mainly to institutions like electoral systems. Drawing on policy feedback and political socialization theories, we suggest an alternative explanation: education policies generate powerful and lasting policy feedback effects in adolescence, which continue to influence patterns of participation among adults. More concretely, we argue that policies aimed at de-stratifying secondary education (i.e., promoting more comprehensive models of education) are associated with a decrease in political inequality. We empirically investigate our argument in Germany, where education policies vary across sub-national units (Länder) and over time. We leverage this variation by combining data on Land-level policies with data on individual’s participation. Our results show that de-stratifying education policies have reduced in inequality in various forms of political participation, interest, and efficacy, but not in turnout.
在个人层面,教育是预测政治参与的最有力因素之一。然而,教育与参政之间的关联在不同国家存在差异,以往的研究主要将其归因于选举制度等体制。根据政策反馈和政治社会化理论,我们提出了另一种解释:教育政策会在青少年时期产生强大而持久的政策反馈效应,这种效应会继续影响成年人的参与模式。更具体地说,我们认为旨在消除中等教育分层(即推广更全面的教育模式)的政策与政治不平等的减少有关。我们在德国对我们的论点进行了实证研究,因为德国的教育政策在不同的次国家单位(州)和不同的时间段都不尽相同。我们将州级政策数据与个人参与数据相结合,充分利用了这种差异。我们的结果表明,去分层化的教育政策减少了各种形式的政治参与、兴趣和效率的不平等,但没有减少投票率。
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引用次数: 0
Revolutionaries for Railways 铁路革命者
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241269843
Chengyuan Ji, Xiao Ma
This study explores the sources of regional favoritism in government-invested infrastructure projects. We built an original county-level dataset that matches the biographies of 1614 retired communist revolutionaries with information on the expansion of China’s state-directed high-speed railway program. Our findings indicate that a surviving revolutionary makes his birth county significantly more likely to receive the central government’s approval for railway investment. This pattern is robust after accounting for a wide range of alternative explanations and a natural experiment design that exploits variations in the timings of revolutionaries’ natural deaths. Additional evidence suggests that the empowering effect of the retired revolutionaries stems most likely from their assistance in their birth counties’ bottom-up lobbying of the central government. Their moral authority as the founders of the regime helps boost local requests for investment in the eyes of central policymakers. Our findings highlight a bottom-up intergovernmental dynamic that translates personal influence into policy benefits.
本研究探讨了政府投资的基础设施项目中地区偏好的来源。我们建立了一个原始的县级数据集,将 1614 名退休共产党员的履历与中国国家高速铁路项目的扩张信息进行匹配。我们的研究结果表明,一位幸存的革命者会使其出生的县获得中央政府批准铁路投资的可能性大大增加。在考虑了多种替代解释和利用革命者自然死亡时间变化的自然实验设计后,这一模式是稳健的。其他证据表明,退休革命者的赋权效应很可能源于他们协助其出生县自下而上地游说中央政府。他们作为政权奠基人的道德权威有助于在中央决策者眼中提升地方的投资要求。我们的研究结果凸显了一种自下而上的政府间动态,它将个人影响力转化为政策利益。
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引用次数: 0
The Myth of the Middle Class Squeeze: Employment and Income by Class in Six Western Countries, 1980–2020 中产阶级挤压的神话:1980-2020 年六个西方国家各阶层的就业和收入情况
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241271166
Jad Moawad, Daniel Oesch
The public debate portrays the middle class as the big losers in recent decades, while people above and below seemingly fared better in terms of employment and income growth. This narrative is both conceptually and empirically flawed. Based on the Luxembourg Income Study 1980–2020, we show for France, Germany, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the US that middle-class employment expanded, while the working class shrank. The middle class also experienced consistently larger income gains than the working class over the past four decades. The disposable real incomes of working-class households in France, Germany or the US grew by less than half a percent per year, compared to 1% or more for the middle class. Cohort analysis also shows that the promise of doing better than one’s parents held for the middle class, but vanished for the working class.
公共辩论将中产阶级描绘成近几十年来的最大输家,而上层和下层人民在就业和收入增长方面似乎表现得更好。这种说法在概念和经验上都存在缺陷。基于《1980-2020 年卢森堡收入研究》,我们对法国、德国、波兰、西班牙、英国和美国的研究表明,中产阶级的就业扩大了,而工人阶级却萎缩了。在过去四十年中,中产阶级的收入增长也一直高于工人阶级。在法国、德国或美国,工人阶级家庭的可支配实际收入每年增长不到半个百分点,而中产阶级的可支配实际收入每年增长 1%或更多。队列分析还显示,中产阶级比父辈生活得更好的承诺依然存在,但工人阶级却消失了。
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引用次数: 2
Social Change and Women’s Left Vote. The Role of Employment, Education, and Marriage in the Gender Vote Gap 社会变革与妇女左票。就业、教育和婚姻在性别选票差距中的作用
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241271123
Mathilde M. van Ditmars, Rosalind Shorrocks
The “modern” gender vote gap – where women are generally more supportive of left parties than men – is established in many Western democracies. Whilst it is linked to societal changes, and in particular the transformation of gender roles and relations, scholars still grapple with its underlying mechanisms. This paper tests one mechanism currently untested in existing accounts: that women’s specific experiences in less traditional social statuses – in employment, education, or out of marriage – drive their support for the left. Analyses using German, Swiss, and English panel data do show differences in left party support between men and women, and amongst women, according to these social statuses. However, we do not find evidence that these occur because of these experiences directly. Rather, our findings indicate that left-leaning women self-select into certain life trajectories. This suggests that women’s shifting political views due to societal change have corresponding changes in individual life choices.
现代 "性别选票差距--女性通常比男性更支持左翼政党--已在许多西方民主国家形成。虽然这种现象与社会变革,尤其是性别角色和关系的转变有关,但学者们仍在努力研究其背后的机制。本文检验了一种目前尚未在现有研究中得到验证的机制:女性在不太传统的社会地位--就业、教育或婚外--中的特殊经历推动了她们对左翼的支持。利用德国、瑞士和英国的面板数据进行的分析确实显示,根据这些社会地位的不同,男女之间以及女性之间对左翼政党的支持存在差异。然而,我们并没有发现证据表明这些差异的出现是由于这些经历的直接影响。相反,我们的研究结果表明,左倾女性自我选择了某些生活轨迹。这表明,社会变革导致的妇女政治观点的转变会相应地改变个人的生活选择。
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引用次数: 0
Mobilization Capacity and Violence Against Local Leaders: Anticlerical Violence During the Spanish Civil War 动员能力与针对地方领导人的暴力:西班牙内战期间的反教权暴力
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241269894
Paloma Aguilar, Fernando de la Cuesta, Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, Francisco Villamil
Research on civilian victimization usually treats all civilians as a unitary group. But not all civilians are the same, nor are they killed for the same reasons. This study highlights a form of wartime civilian victimization that is little understood, even if pervasive across conflicts: violence against local leaders. We argue that this category of civilians are pre-emptively targeted because of their potential to mobilize support. Local leaders with greater mobilization capacity are more likely to be killed. We test this argument using original data on clergy killings during the Spanish Civil War. Results show that clerics were more likely to be killed in municipalities where their capacity for mobilizing people against the Republic was higher, making themselves a potential threat to local armed actors. This study highlights the need to disaggregate the category of civilians, which has suffered from conceptual and empirical overaggregation.
有关平民受害情况的研究通常将所有平民视为一个单一群体。但并非所有平民都是一样的,他们被杀害的原因也不尽相同。本研究强调了一种鲜为人知的战时平民受害形式,尽管这种形式在各种冲突中普遍存在:针对地方领导人的暴力行为。我们认为,这类平民之所以成为先发制人的目标,是因为他们具有动员支持的潜力。动员能力更强的地方领导人更容易被杀害。我们利用西班牙内战期间神职人员被杀的原始数据来验证这一论点。结果显示,在那些动员民众反对共和国的能力较强的城市,神职人员更有可能被杀害,从而对当地武装分子构成潜在威胁。这项研究强调了对平民类别进行分类的必要性,因为这一类别在概念和经验上都存在过度分类的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptualizing and Measuring Support for Democracy: A New Approach 概念化和衡量对民主的支持:一种新方法
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241259458
Christopher Claassen, Kathrin Ackermann, Eri Bertsou, Lucas Borba, Ryan E. Carlin, Amnon Cavari, Sirianne Dahlum, Sergiu Gherghina, Darren Hawkins, Yphtach Lelkes, Pedro C. Magalhães, Robert B. Mattes, M. Meijers, Anja Neundorf, Dániel Oross, Aykut Öztürk, R. Sarsfield, Darin Self, Ben Stanley, Tsung-han Tsai, A. Zaslove, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
Much of what we know about public support for democracy is based on survey questions about “democracy,” a term that varies in meaning across countries and likely prompts uncritically supportive responses. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring support for democracy. We develop a battery of 17 survey questions that cover all eight components of liberal democracy as defined by the V-Dem project. We then ask respondents from 19 national samples to evaluate these rights and institutions. We find considerable heterogeneity across countries in how our items cohere, especially in less developed contexts. Yet, those items that are more weakly connected with general support for liberal democracy tend to reveal the influence of political events and actors, arguably indicating weaknesses in political cultures. We further identify a concise subset of seven items that provide a reliable and valid measure of support for liberal democracy across our different samples.
我们对公众民主支持度的了解大多基于有关 "民主 "的调查问题,而 "民主 "一词在不同国家的含义各不相同,很可能会引发不加批判的支持性回答。本文提出了一种衡量民主支持度的新方法。我们提出了 17 个调查问题,涵盖了 V-Dem 项目所定义的自由民主的所有八个组成部分。然后,我们要求来自 19 个国家样本的受访者对这些权利和制度进行评价。我们发现,各国在如何整合我们的项目方面存在相当大的差异,尤其是在欠发达国家。然而,那些与对自由民主的普遍支持联系较弱的项目往往会显示出政治事件和政治人物的影响,可以说这表明了政治文化的弱点。我们进一步确定了一个由七个项目组成的简明子集,该子集能够在不同的样本中可靠、有效地衡量对自由民主的支持程度。
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引用次数: 0
Clientelism, Party Organization and Intra-party Democracy 裙带关系、党组织和党内民主
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252082
Mihail Chiru
While scholars of clientelism have long recognized that party organization characteristics influence the capacity of parties to pursue clientelism, the consequences of clientelism for party organization remain underexplored. This article examines how clientelism influences one salient aspect of party organization in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), internal democracy, arguing that in parties pursuing clientelism, selection processes are less competitive, and leader domination over party bodies is necessary, as is limiting the influence of rank-and-file members on organizational and policy issues. Longitudinal analyses corroborate the hypothesized negative relationship for a sample of CEE parties and for a larger sample of parties outside the region. While single-shot and relational clientelism are both negatively associated with intra-party democracy, the latter has a stronger impact. The statistical analyses are complemented by a qualitative account of how clientelism and weak intra-party democracy fit in with the CEE parties’ origin, ideological orientation, and broader organisational strategies.
尽管研究 "僚属关系 "的学者早已认识到,政党组织的特征会影响政党奉行 "僚属关系 "的能力,但 "僚属关系 "对政党组织的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本文研究了朋党主义如何影响中东欧(CEE)政党组织的一个突出方面--党内民主,认为在奉行朋党主义的政党中,遴选过程的竞争性较弱,领导者对政党机构的支配是必要的,限制普通党员对组织和政策问题的影响也是必要的。纵向分析证实了中欧和东欧政党样本以及该地区以外更多政党样本中假设的负相关关系。虽然一言堂和关系型贿赂都与党内民主呈负相关,但后者的影响更大。除了统计分析之外,我们还对 "贿赂主义 "和薄弱的党内民主与中东欧政党的起源、意识形态取向以及更广泛的组织战略之间的关系进行了定性分析。
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引用次数: 0
Coordination Rights, Competition Law and Varieties of Capitalism 协调权、竞争法和资本主义的多样性
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241259461
Chase Foster, Kathleen Thelen
Competition law is a constitutive institution in capitalist markets, establishing the rules for when interfirm coordination is allowed and where competition is required (Paul, 2020). Yet comparativists have spent decades debating the varieties of capitalism framework—which places the issue of coordination at the center of the distinction between capitalist types—while paying virtually no attention to cross-national variation in antitrust rules. This article develops an original theoretical framework to conceptualize the relationship between competition law and the organization of capitalism. We go beyond the usual binaries (coordinated vs. liberal market economies, “restrictive” vs. “permissive” antitrust regimes) to disentangle two dimensions of the law that fundamentally shape patterns of coordination and competition both across regulatory jurisdictions and over time. Applying our framework to analyze the evolution of American and European competition law, we show how a comparative coordination rights framework can be used to conceptualize key institutional changes within contemporary capitalist systems.
竞争法是资本主义市场的一个构成性制度,它确立了何时允许企业间协调、何时需要竞争的规则(保罗,2020 年)。然而,几十年来,比较学家们一直在争论资本主义类型框架--该框架将协调问题置于区分资本主义类型的中心--而几乎没有关注反托拉斯规则的跨国差异。本文建立了一个新颖的理论框架,将竞争法与资本主义组织之间的关系概念化。我们超越了通常的二元对立(协调市场经济与自由市场经济、"限制性 "反托拉斯制度与 "放任性 "反托拉斯制度),将法律的两个层面进行了区分,这两个层面从根本上塑造了不同监管辖区和不同时期的协调与竞争模式。应用我们的框架来分析美国和欧洲竞争法的演变,我们展示了如何利用比较协调权框架来构思当代资本主义体系中的关键制度变革。
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引用次数: 0
The Development of the Urban-Rural Cleavage in Anglo-American Democracies. 英美民主国家城乡分化的发展
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194060
Zack Taylor, Jack Lucas, David A Armstrong, Ryan Bakker

We provide a mixed-methods, comparative analysis of the development of the urban-rural electoral cleavage in Canada, Great Britain, and the United States from the early 20th century to the present. Using aggregate election results, electoral district boundary files, and electoral district population measures, we construct a new comparable dataset of district election results and urbanity for the lower house of the legislature in each country. We use this dataset to measure the importance of the urban-rural divide for election outcomes across countries and time. We find that the cleavage has widened over time in each country, each arrived at its current urban-rural divide via a distinct developmental trajectory, which we interpret with reference to secondary literature. We conclude by discussing the significance of our findings for theories of both the causes and consequences of urban-rural divides and discuss the implications of our work for the comparative study of urban-rural cleavages.

我们提供了一种混合方法,对20世纪初至今加拿大、英国和美国城乡选举鸿沟的发展进行了比较分析。利用总选举结果、选区边界文件和选区人口测量,我们为每个国家的立法机构下议院构建了一个新的地区选举结果和城市化可比数据集。我们使用这个数据集来衡量城乡差距对不同国家和时间的选举结果的重要性。我们发现,随着时间的推移,每个国家的差距都在扩大,每个国家都通过不同的发展轨迹形成了当前的城乡差距,我们参考二手文献对此进行了解释。最后,我们讨论了我们的研究结果对城乡差距因果理论的意义,并讨论了我们工作对城乡差距比较研究的启示。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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