Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI:10.1093/epolic/eiad020
Refet S Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, Sang Seok Lee
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Abstract

SUMMARY For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. In doing so, it also clarifies how neo-Fisherian disinflation may work or fail, in theory and in practice. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no and yes.
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弱货币政策下的汇率与通货膨胀:土耳其验证理论
对于学术读者来说,本文从标准的新凯恩斯主义模型的角度,展示了货币政策规则中一个明确的、巨大的变化的结果,并询问该模型是否正确地捕捉了这种影响。对于政策制定者来说,这是一个关于忽视基本宏观经济学的可怕后果的警示故事。在此过程中,它也阐明了新费舍尔的反通货膨胀理论在理论和实践中是如何起作用或失败的。土耳其过去10年的货币政策实验,源于政府相信高利率会导致更高的通胀,不幸的是,它在政策规则中提供了一种明显的外生差异。维持低利率的任务,以及政府为执行这一任务而精心安排的政策制定者频繁更换,导致泰勒原则得不到满足,最终导致政策规则中的通胀系数为负。在这样的环境下,汇率仍然是随机游走吗?通胀是稳定的吗?“标准模型”是否足以解释一个政策规则存在巨大差异的新兴经济体宏观经济结果的大致轮廓?对于学习开放经济宏观经济学的学生来说,这并不奇怪;答案是否定、否定和肯定。
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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