Comparative Forecasting of Key Fisheries Related Indicators in Gyeongnam and Jeonnam

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict key indicators that form the basis of the fishing industry in the Gyeongnam and Jeonnam regions, which represent the Korean fishing industry, and to forecast the next six years for these regions. For this purpose, the main indicators used in the analysis are the total volume and value of fisheries products in individual regions, the inshore and offshore production volume and value, aquaculture production volume and value, number of fishing vessels, horsepower, and tonnage. The ETS exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model were used in this analysis, and the prediction performance of these models was also compared using the MAPE indicator based on the actual and estimated values of the out-of-sample period. As a result of the analysis, the ARIMA model was found to have better predictive power than the ETS exponential smoothing model, except for the inshore and offshore fishery production in Gyeongnam and the inshore and offshore production value in Jeollanam-do. In addition, Gyeongnam