Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann’s programme and beyond

IF 44.8 1区 物理与天体物理 Q1 PHYSICS, APPLIED Nature Reviews Physics Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI:10.1038/s42254-023-00650-8
Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël D. Chekroun
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Abstract

Klaus Hasselmann’s revolutionary intuition in climate science was to use the stochasticity associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. Doing so led to fundamentally new ways to study the response of climate models to perturbations, and to perform detection and attribution for climate change signals. Hasselmann’s programme has been extremely influential in climate science and beyond. In this Perspective, we first summarize the main aspects of such a programme using modern concepts and tools of statistical physics and applied mathematics. We then provide an overview of some promising scientific perspectives that might clarify the science behind the climate crisis and that stem from Hasselmann’s ideas. We show how to perform rigorous and data-driven model reduction by constructing parameterizations in systems that do not necessarily feature a timescale separation between unresolved and resolved processes. We outline a general theoretical framework for explaining the relationship between climate variability and climate change, and for performing climate change projections. This framework enables us seamlessly to explain some key general aspects of climatic tipping points. Finally, we show that response theory provides a solid framework supporting optimal fingerprinting methods for detection and attribution. Klaus Hasselmann’s viewpoint has had enormous influence in climate science, both in its theoretical and practical aspects. This Perspective provides a review of Hasselmann’s scientific programme and proposes ways forward for advancing our knowledge on the multiscale behaviour of the climate system, and on the relationship between its forced and free variability.

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从哈塞尔曼计划及其他方面理解气候危机的理论工具
克劳斯-哈塞尔曼(Klaus Hasselmann)在气候科学方面的革命性直觉是,利用与快速天气过程相关的随机性来探测气候系统的慢动态。他的研究为研究气候模型对扰动的反应、检测和归因气候变化信号提供了全新的方法。哈塞尔曼的研究计划在气候科学及其他领域具有极大的影响力。在本《视角》中,我们首先利用现代统计物理学和应用数学的概念和工具总结了这一计划的主要方面。然后,我们概述了源于哈塞尔曼思想的一些有希望的科学观点,这些观点可能会澄清气候危机背后的科学问题。我们展示了如何通过在不一定具有未解决过程和已解决过程之间的时间尺度分离特征的系统中构建参数化来进行严格的、数据驱动的模型还原。我们概述了解释气候变异性和气候变化之间关系以及进行气候变化预测的一般理论框架。这一框架使我们能够无缝地解释气候临界点的一些关键的一般方面。最后,我们表明,响应理论提供了一个坚实的框架,支持用于检测和归因的最佳指纹识别方法。克劳斯-哈塞尔曼(Klaus Hasselmann)的观点在气候科学的理论和实践方面都产生了巨大影响。本视角回顾了哈塞尔曼的科学计划,并提出了推进我们对气候系统多尺度行为及其强迫变率与自由变率之间关系的认识的方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
47.80
自引率
0.50%
发文量
122
期刊介绍: Nature Reviews Physics is an online-only reviews journal, part of the Nature Reviews portfolio of journals. It publishes high-quality technical reference, review, and commentary articles in all areas of fundamental and applied physics. The journal offers a range of content types, including Reviews, Perspectives, Roadmaps, Technical Reviews, Expert Recommendations, Comments, Editorials, Research Highlights, Features, and News & Views, which cover significant advances in the field and topical issues. Nature Reviews Physics is published monthly from January 2019 and does not have external, academic editors. Instead, all editorial decisions are made by a dedicated team of full-time professional editors.
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