{"title":"The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria","authors":"Reinhard Neck, Friedrich Schneider","doi":"10.1007/s10797-023-09802-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we apply the unit root and cointegration methodology as well as other methods of modern econometric time series analysis to estimate popularity functions for the Austrian parties in power since the mid-1970s. We find only very rare evidence for economic variables influencing the popularity of the main political parties in the federal government, thereby challenging previous studies that claimed to have established such influences. When considering the determinants of the popularity of the incumbent party (the sum of the popularities of the parties in government), the unemployment rate turns out to have a negative short-run influence. The robustness of this result is checked by various methods, demonstrating the usefulness of the applied methodology to clarify such issues.","PeriodicalId":47518,"journal":{"name":"International Tax and Public Finance","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Tax and Public Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09802-z","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract In this paper we apply the unit root and cointegration methodology as well as other methods of modern econometric time series analysis to estimate popularity functions for the Austrian parties in power since the mid-1970s. We find only very rare evidence for economic variables influencing the popularity of the main political parties in the federal government, thereby challenging previous studies that claimed to have established such influences. When considering the determinants of the popularity of the incumbent party (the sum of the popularities of the parties in government), the unemployment rate turns out to have a negative short-run influence. The robustness of this result is checked by various methods, demonstrating the usefulness of the applied methodology to clarify such issues.
期刊介绍：
INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE publishes outstanding original research, both theoretical and empirical, in all areas of public economics. While the journal has a historical strength in open economy, international, and interjurisdictional issues, we actively encourage high-quality submissions from the breadth of public economics.The special Policy Watch section is designed to facilitate communication between the academic and public policy spheres. This section includes timely, policy-oriented discussions. The goal is to provide a two-way forum in which academic researchers gain insight into current policy priorities and policy-makers can access academic advances in a practical way. INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE is peer reviewed and published in one volume per year, consisting of six issues, one of which contains papers presented at the annual congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (refereed in the usual way). Officially cited as: Int Tax Public Finance
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