Trilemma revisited with dollar dominance in trade and finance

Abstract

Abstract This paper explores the impact of the US dollar dominance on monetary and exchange rate policies in 51 advanced and developing countries from 1999 to 2021. We introduce a global exposure index to measure countries' dependence on the US dollar. Our study reveals that the dominant currency framework creates a global monetary cycle driven by the US dollar, exposing non‐U.S. economies to the U.S. monetary policy. However, we show that countries can reduce their exposure to the U.S. monetary policy by accumulating reserves and intervening in foreign exchange.