This paper studies the relationship between global value chain (GVC) participation, worker‐level routine task intensity (RTI) and wage inequality within countries. Using survey data from 34 countries and instrumenting for GVC participation, we find that higher GVC participation contributes to higher wage inequality in high‐income countries and lower wage inequality in middle‐ and low‐income countries. We distinguish between two opposite‐working channels. First, participation in GVCs directly reduces wage inequality, suppressing wages in offshorable occupations that tend to earn above the country‐specific median, and increasing wages of non‐offshorable occupations. Second, it indirectly widens within‐country wage inequality by increasing the gap in RTI, which is negatively associated with wages, between offshorable and non‐offshorable occupations. The direct effect prevails in most low‐ and middle‐income countries that receive offshored jobs, and the indirect effect prevails in high‐income countries that offshore jobs.
{"title":"The role of global value chains for worker tasks and wage inequality","authors":"Piotr Lewandowski, Karol Madoń, Deborah Winkler","doi":"10.1111/twec.13630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13630","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the relationship between global value chain (GVC) participation, worker‐level routine task intensity (RTI) and wage inequality within countries. Using survey data from 34 countries and instrumenting for GVC participation, we find that higher GVC participation contributes to higher wage inequality in high‐income countries and lower wage inequality in middle‐ and low‐income countries. We distinguish between two opposite‐working channels. First, participation in GVCs directly reduces wage inequality, suppressing wages in offshorable occupations that tend to earn above the country‐specific median, and increasing wages of non‐offshorable occupations. Second, it indirectly widens within‐country wage inequality by increasing the gap in RTI, which is negatively associated with wages, between offshorable and non‐offshorable occupations. The direct effect prevails in most low‐ and middle‐income countries that receive offshored jobs, and the indirect effect prevails in high‐income countries that offshore jobs.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economists often debate whether a country should pursue a discriminatory regional trade or the broader multilateral trade expansion. This paper contributes to the discourse by presenting empirical evidence on the impacts of regional and multilateral trade openness on economic growth of expansion in Malawi. Using the ARDL‐EC model and data spanning the period 1995–2020, the estimates show that the impact of multilateral trade openness on the long‐run growth rate is positive and statistically significant. At the disaggregated level, the results show that both intra‐ and extra‐African merchandise trade openness have positive and significant impact on the long‐run growth rate. The evidence also suggests that the impact of a change in the level of intra‐African merchandise trade openness on long‐run growth is larger than that of a similar change in the level of extra‐African merchandise trade openness. Thus, our results suggest that policymakers can pursue both regional and multilateral trade expansions simultaneously to accelerate Malawi's economic growth. To augment the benefits of trade, however, we recommend that policymakers focus on deepening intra‐African trade integration and diversifying the country's export base beyond the primary commodities; and to increase the processing of export products to enhance the dynamic benefits to spur faster growth.
{"title":"Trade openness and growth in a small economy: Evidence from Malawi","authors":"Jacob Musila, Andrew Mpekansambo","doi":"10.1111/twec.13622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13622","url":null,"abstract":"Economists often debate whether a country should pursue a discriminatory regional trade or the broader multilateral trade expansion. This paper contributes to the discourse by presenting empirical evidence on the impacts of regional and multilateral trade openness on economic growth of expansion in Malawi. Using the ARDL‐EC model and data spanning the period 1995–2020, the estimates show that the impact of multilateral trade openness on the long‐run growth rate is positive and statistically significant. At the disaggregated level, the results show that both intra‐ and extra‐African merchandise trade openness have positive and significant impact on the long‐run growth rate. The evidence also suggests that the impact of a change in the level of intra‐African merchandise trade openness on long‐run growth is larger than that of a similar change in the level of extra‐African merchandise trade openness. Thus, our results suggest that policymakers can pursue both regional and multilateral trade expansions simultaneously to accelerate Malawi's economic growth. To augment the benefits of trade, however, we recommend that policymakers focus on deepening intra‐African trade integration and diversifying the country's export base beyond the primary commodities; and to increase the processing of export products to enhance the dynamic benefits to spur faster growth.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of geopolitical risk on bank wholesale funding using a sample of 2333 commercial banks in 41 countries over the period 2002–2021. Evidence suggests that increased geopolitical risk reduces the share of bank wholesale funding. Interestingly, our finding is driven by small and medium‐sized banks, as large banks do not lose funding from wholesale financiers when geopolitical risk is higher. Delving into the mechanisms that drive our findings, we find that wholesale financiers rely on noisy public signals on bank asset quality such as insolvency risk, earnings volatility and bad debts to determine whether to refinance or withdraw their financing. Small banks lose funding from both informed and uninformed wholesale financiers as their asset quality is adversely affected when geopolitical risk is elevated. Large banks with better asset quality are not significantly affected by geopolitical risk and benefit from the flight‐to‐safety motive.
{"title":"Bank wholesale funding in an era of rising geopolitical risk","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen, Tien Ho Thuy","doi":"10.1111/twec.13620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13620","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of geopolitical risk on bank wholesale funding using a sample of 2333 commercial banks in 41 countries over the period 2002–2021. Evidence suggests that increased geopolitical risk reduces the share of bank wholesale funding. Interestingly, our finding is driven by small and medium‐sized banks, as large banks do not lose funding from wholesale financiers when geopolitical risk is higher. Delving into the mechanisms that drive our findings, we find that wholesale financiers rely on noisy public signals on bank asset quality such as insolvency risk, earnings volatility and bad debts to determine whether to refinance or withdraw their financing. Small banks lose funding from both informed and uninformed wholesale financiers as their asset quality is adversely affected when geopolitical risk is elevated. Large banks with better asset quality are not significantly affected by geopolitical risk and benefit from the flight‐to‐safety motive.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"182 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper empirically investigates whether and how the level of GVC integration of a given market may explain the presence of foreign‐owned firms. Using firm‐level data from 28 European Union countries during the period 2008–2014, we provide evidence that a greater country‐sector‐level GVC participation, via both backward and forward linkages, exerts a positive effect on a firm's likelihood to receive FDI. These findings appear particularly strong for new EU Member States and services industries when looking at the differences across countries and sectors. Interestingly, when exploring the role of country‐sector position along the GVC, we find that FDI gains from backward GVC integration are more prominent if the markets are associated with the final stages of the supply chain, whereas those from forward GVC integration are greater when the markets are associated with the initial stages, in line with the smile curve hypothesis.
{"title":"Global value chains and inward FDI: An empirical investigation of European firms","authors":"Michele Imbruno, Rosanna Pittiglio, Filippo Reganati, Sabina Szymczak, Joanna Wolszczak‐Derlacz","doi":"10.1111/twec.13624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13624","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically investigates whether and how the level of GVC integration of a given market may explain the presence of foreign‐owned firms. Using firm‐level data from 28 European Union countries during the period 2008–2014, we provide evidence that a greater country‐sector‐level GVC participation, via both backward and forward linkages, exerts a positive effect on a firm's likelihood to receive FDI. These findings appear particularly strong for new EU Member States and services industries when looking at the differences across countries and sectors. Interestingly, when exploring the role of country‐sector position along the GVC, we find that FDI gains from backward GVC integration are more prominent if the markets are associated with the final stages of the supply chain, whereas those from forward GVC integration are greater when the markets are associated with the initial stages, in line with the smile curve hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"165 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While the literature is rich in anecdotal cases of firms going through nearshoring strategies, understood as the relocation of production inputs in a geographically closer area, a study on the macroeconomic effects of nearshoring at regional level, in terms of both growth and regional inequalities, is still missing. Instead, understanding the potential regional variations in the outcomes of nearshoring practices is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to strike a balance between the imperative of strategic autonomy and the need to address existing regional disparities. The paper picks up such a challenge and, once nearshoring has been defined at the macroeconomic level as a process according to which the EU relative to extra‐EU inputs ratio increases, compared with a reference period in the past, it analyses regional inequality effects of such a phenomenon in Europe. The results show that nearshoring turns out to be notably diverse and contingent upon the efficiency gains the target regions offer. In some cases, it produces potential adverse consequences, going against the already complex process of decreasing regional disparities.
{"title":"Regional inequalities in the age of nearshoring","authors":"Roberta Capello, Roberto Dellisanti","doi":"10.1111/twec.13628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13628","url":null,"abstract":"While the literature is rich in anecdotal cases of firms going through nearshoring strategies, understood as the relocation of production inputs in a geographically closer area, a study on the macroeconomic effects of nearshoring at regional level, in terms of both growth and regional inequalities, is still missing. Instead, understanding the potential regional variations in the outcomes of nearshoring practices is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to strike a balance between the imperative of strategic autonomy and the need to address existing regional disparities. The paper picks up such a challenge and, once nearshoring has been defined at the macroeconomic level as a process according to which the EU relative to extra‐EU inputs ratio increases, compared with a reference period in the past, it analyses regional inequality effects of such a phenomenon in Europe. The results show that nearshoring turns out to be notably diverse and contingent upon the efficiency gains the target regions offer. In some cases, it produces potential adverse consequences, going against the already complex process of decreasing regional disparities.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142218311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research and development (R&D) by multinational enterprises (MNEs) generates substantial positive cross‐country spillovers. With R&D incentives primarily provided by the MNEs' host countries, these nations bear the entire cost of incentivising R&D but only reap a fraction of the benefits, resulting in inefficiently low R&D incentives and investment from a global perspective. Allowing MNEs to shift their profit to a tax haven shelters the firms' profit from foreign taxation and increases the net returns to R&D without reducing the domestic tax base. In this setting, tax havens can be welfare beneficial because they help to internalise the positive cross‐country spillovers of R&D. The optimal effective minimum tax balances a reduction in wasteful profit shifting and more efficient R&D incentives for MNEs. Regardless of the welfare effect of R&D, a strictly positive minimum tax is optimal for each country. Uncoordinated minimum taxes may be excessively high, if R&D investment has a strong impact on productivity. Under certain circumstances, IP boxes are a welfare‐improving substitute for tax havens.
{"title":"Taxation of MNE profits in an R&D driven economy: Beneficial tax havens and minimum taxes","authors":"Malte Lüttmann","doi":"10.1111/twec.13621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13621","url":null,"abstract":"Research and development (R&D) by multinational enterprises (MNEs) generates substantial positive cross‐country spillovers. With R&D incentives primarily provided by the MNEs' host countries, these nations bear the entire cost of incentivising R&D but only reap a fraction of the benefits, resulting in inefficiently low R&D incentives and investment from a global perspective. Allowing MNEs to shift their profit to a tax haven shelters the firms' profit from foreign taxation and increases the net returns to R&D without reducing the domestic tax base. In this setting, tax havens can be welfare beneficial because they help to internalise the positive cross‐country spillovers of R&D. The optimal effective minimum tax balances a reduction in wasteful profit shifting and more efficient R&D incentives for MNEs. Regardless of the welfare effect of R&D, a strictly positive minimum tax is optimal for each country. Uncoordinated minimum taxes may be excessively high, if R&D investment has a strong impact on productivity. Under certain circumstances, IP boxes are a welfare‐improving substitute for tax havens.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141935733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since Brexit, the UK has been responsible for its own trade policymaking rather than inputting into the collective policy of the European Union. This paper starts by sketching how that policy has been developed and implemented and how it is turning out. Overall, it is not very complimentary about the UK Government's efforts and so it then moves on to consider how we might do better. One dimension of this is how trade policy could be made more inclusive in formulation. I propose three (sets of) institutional reforms: increasing Parliamentary (and other) scrutiny of the government's trade policy plans; after examining how the UK public thinks about trade policy, it asks whether (how) one should take into account public attitudes to trade policy issues; finally, it argues for creating an independent source of advice and analysis on trade policy. It concludes by noting that while recent history has been disappointing, trade policy by any government would be improved by the reforms recommended.
{"title":"How do we make trade policy in Britain? How should we?","authors":"L. Alan Winters","doi":"10.1111/twec.13617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13617","url":null,"abstract":"Since Brexit, the UK has been responsible for its own trade policymaking rather than inputting into the collective policy of the European Union. This paper starts by sketching how that policy has been developed and implemented and how it is turning out. Overall, it is not very complimentary about the UK Government's efforts and so it then moves on to consider how we might do better. One dimension of this is how trade policy could be made more inclusive in formulation. I propose three (sets of) institutional reforms: increasing Parliamentary (and other) scrutiny of the government's trade policy plans; after examining how the UK public thinks about trade policy, it asks whether (how) one should take into account public attitudes to trade policy issues; finally, it argues for creating an independent source of advice and analysis on trade policy. It concludes by noting that while recent history has been disappointing, trade policy by any government would be improved by the reforms recommended.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141868162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cross‐border trade is critical to livelihoods and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), but bribery remains one of the main barriers to economic growth in the region. Does corruption affect intra‐African trade? We address this issue by considering the bilateral trade among 48 sub‐Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018, which are subject to a high level of corruption. Using a gravity model, the results show that corruption has a positive impact on exports and a negative impact on imports of global, primary, and manufactured goods. However, the difference in the level of corruption between country pairs is negatively and significantly associated with intra‐African trade in manufactured goods. Therefore, to promote the corruption‐free environment needed to facilitate the African Free Trade Agreement, it is essential for policymakers in sub‐Saharan African countries to combat corruption to boost intra‐African trade.
{"title":"Intra‐African trade and corruption: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African countries","authors":"Whelsy Boungou, Francis Osei‐Tutu, Amara Zongo","doi":"10.1111/twec.13618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13618","url":null,"abstract":"Cross‐border trade is critical to livelihoods and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), but bribery remains one of the main barriers to economic growth in the region. Does corruption affect intra‐African trade? We address this issue by considering the bilateral trade among 48 sub‐Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018, which are subject to a high level of corruption. Using a gravity model, the results show that corruption has a positive impact on exports and a negative impact on imports of global, primary, and manufactured goods. However, the difference in the level of corruption between country pairs is negatively and significantly associated with intra‐African trade in manufactured goods. Therefore, to promote the corruption‐free environment needed to facilitate the African Free Trade Agreement, it is essential for policymakers in sub‐Saharan African countries to combat corruption to boost intra‐African trade.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141778042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adding a new dimension to the body of research on COVID economics, this article considers the determinants of vaccine variety across nations. Driven by supply chain issues, development timelines, pricing, and vaccine nationalism, the number of available vaccines varies considerably across nations. Results show that greater pandemic severity and more populous nations had more vaccines, while nations with large land areas had fewer vaccines. Finally, while island nations were likely to have fewer vaccines, authoritarian regimes were mostly no different from other regimes. Greater COVID risks mostly lowered vaccine variety, as did supply chain issues and the prevalence of other infectious diseases. Finally, nations with worse institutional quality had more vaccines, ceteris paribus.
{"title":"COVID‐19 vaccine variety and dimensions of risks: What factors induced nations to introduce multiple vaccines?","authors":"Rajeev K. Goel, James R. Jones, Salvatore Capasso","doi":"10.1111/twec.13619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13619","url":null,"abstract":"Adding a new dimension to the body of research on COVID economics, this article considers the determinants of vaccine variety across nations. Driven by supply chain issues, development timelines, pricing, and vaccine nationalism, the number of available vaccines varies considerably across nations. Results show that greater pandemic severity and more populous nations had more vaccines, while nations with large land areas had fewer vaccines. Finally, while island nations were likely to have fewer vaccines, authoritarian regimes were mostly no different from other regimes. Greater COVID risks mostly lowered vaccine variety, as did supply chain issues and the prevalence of other infectious diseases. Finally, nations with worse institutional quality had more vaccines, ceteris paribus.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141778043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sarah Damásio, Óscar Afonso, Pedro Cunha Neves, Elena Sochirca
We develop a meta‐analysis of the empirical literature that estimates the impact of international trade on income convergence between countries. We find that, on average, trade tends to generate inter‐country income convergence. Especially in more recent years, we identified a preference for publishing and citing studies that report a stronger effect of trade on convergence. We also find that the effect of trade on income convergence is sensitive to the characteristics of the countries included in the sample, data structure, and estimation techniques.
{"title":"International trade and income convergence: Meta‐analysis","authors":"Sarah Damásio, Óscar Afonso, Pedro Cunha Neves, Elena Sochirca","doi":"10.1111/twec.13615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13615","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a meta‐analysis of the empirical literature that estimates the impact of international trade on income convergence between countries. We find that, on average, trade tends to generate inter‐country income convergence. Especially in more recent years, we identified a preference for publishing and citing studies that report a stronger effect of trade on convergence. We also find that the effect of trade on income convergence is sensitive to the characteristics of the countries included in the sample, data structure, and estimation techniques.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141738354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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