Gambling on unknown unknowns: Risk ethics for a climate change technofix

Abstract

In this article, we critically engage with the risk ethics of attempting to mitigate climate change via a technofix, namely Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) utilizing Synthetic Biology. Now that the IPCC has (belatedly) acknowledged climate overshoot as being inevitable, our dependency on NETs to avert runaway climate change has become critical. Given the scale of unknown unknowns at play when utilizing any such technofix, we present gambling as the most apt analogy to communicate the unprecedented realms of risk and uncertainty occasioned by any such action. Hence, we critique traditional normative ethics in order to illustrate how a germane climate ethics must face the largely uncertain and unpredictable risk that any climate change technofix would inevitably represent instead of advocating for outdated risk-averse positions. We conclude by showing that this approach is fundamental to developing impactful future ethics research on climate mitigation, and is required to mark a much-needed new direction for risk ethics in the Anthropocene.