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The link between human population dynamics and energy consumption during the Anthropocene 人类世的人口动态与能源消耗之间的联系
Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: 10.1177/20530196241255081
Mauricio Lima
Our present world is the consequence of the size of the human population and its domination of the biosphere through the combustion of fossil fuels. Since ~1950, there has been a sudden increase in the rate of human global energy consumption, economic productivity, and population growth. This abrupt departure of the system dynamics has been defined as the “Great Acceleration.” The accelerated population and economic expansion during the past 70 years would have been impossible without using fossil fuels. However, no studies have made an explicit connection between human population dynamics on a global scale and historical changes in energy consumption growth rates, economic growth, and the energy return on investment of fossil fuels (EROI). In this study, I apply a simple population dynamic model of cooperation/competition to decipher the effects of changes in these factors on the dynamics of the human population during the period (1800–2020).
我们现在的世界是人类人口规模及其通过燃烧化石燃料统治生物圈的结果。自 1950 年以来,人类的全球能源消耗、经济生产力和人口增长速度突然加快。这种系统动力学的突然偏离被定义为 "大加速"。如果不使用化石燃料,过去 70 年间人口和经济的加速扩张是不可能实现的。然而,还没有任何研究将全球范围内的人类人口动态与能源消耗增长率、经济增长和化石燃料的能源投资回报率(EROI)的历史变化明确联系起来。在本研究中,我运用了一个简单的合作/竞争人口动态模型来解读这些因素的变化对(1800-2020 年)期间人类人口动态的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Space sustainability through atmosphere pollution? De-orbiting, atmosphere-blindness and planetary environmental injustice 通过大气污染实现太空可持续性?脱离轨道、大气层盲区和地球环境不公
Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/20530196241255088
Patrick Flamm, Daniel Lambach, Urs Schaefer-Rolffs, Claudia Stolle, Vitali Braun
Space debris is a major issue for space safety as any collision of a space object with even a small piece of debris can have catastrophic consequences. The most recent dramatic increase of the number of satellites in Earth’s orbit is clearly exacerbating the risks. In this context there is a growing norm of disposal of orbital debris through atmospheric re-entry: space debris is to ‘burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere’, in order to provide for a ‘clean space’. Unfortunately, there is very little data on the environmental impact of deorbiting on atmospheric chemistry and in-situ data collection is practically impossible. The few existing studies – our own modelling included – agree that while the current impact of deorbiting is likely negligible, the projected exponential growth of satellites in LEO could exacerbate the risks. In consequence, space sustainability may come at the expense of damaging the health of the middle and upper atmosphere, with potentially unforeseeable consequences. Against this backdrop, we argue that in order to manage LEO sustainably, we must overcome this – what we call – ‘atmosphere-blindness’: our limited understanding of space-Earth system links through orbital disposal practices and their atmospheric impacts. While there is growing environmental consciousness with regard to outer space, we need to acknowledge that space sustainability is embedded in a wider context of outer space geopolitics, where the benefits and risks of the space infrastructure are distributed highly unequally. In our view it is thus crucially important to undertake more interdisciplinary research on the issue of de-orbiting, as it is not merely a technical environmental problem to be fixed but also an inherently political matter of planetary scale environmental justice.
空间碎片是空间安全的一个重大问题,因为空间物体与哪怕是一小块碎片的碰撞都可能造成灾难性后果。最近地球轨道上卫星数量的急剧增加显然加剧了这种风险。在这种情况下,通过重返大气层来处理轨道碎片的做法日益普遍:空间碎片应 "在大气层中无害燃烧",以提供一个 "洁净的空间"。遗憾的是,关于脱离轨道对大气化学的环境影响的数据非常少,而且现场数据收集实际上是不可能的。现有的几项研究--包括我们自己的建模--一致认为,虽然目前脱轨的影响可能可以忽略不计,但预计低地轨道卫星的指数式增长可能会加剧风险。因此,空间可持续性可能会以破坏中高层大气的健康为代价,并可能带来不可预见的后果。在这一背景下,我们认为,为了可持续地管理低地轨道,我们必须克服这种我们称之为 "大气盲 "的问题:我们对通过轨道处置做法及其对大气的影响而形成的空间-地球系统联系的理解有限。虽然人们对外层空间的环保意识日益增强,但我们必须认识到,空间可持续性植根于更广泛的外层空间地缘政治背景之中,在这一背景下,空间基础设施的利益和风险分配极不平等。因此,我们认为,就离轨问题开展更多跨学科研究至关重要,因为这不仅仅是一个需要解决的技术性环境问题,也是一个关乎地球环境正义的内在政治问题。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-ecological regime shifts in New England (USA), 1620–2020 1620-2020 年新英格兰(美国)的社会生态制度变迁
Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231218484
James Sedalia Peters
Relationships between nature and society are made manifest in the production of landscapes. Consequently, landscape changes indicate changes in the relationships between nature and society. Forged at regional scales over long periods of time, nature/society relationships, like natural and social systems, exhibit periods of equilibrium, stability, and incremental change that eventually give way to new periods of equilibrium, stability, and incremental change in which causal relationships have changed. The paper presents a landscape changebased, grounded theory periodization of the New England (USA) region’s Anthropocene history. Its intent is to provide temporal boundaries within which processes, events, records, and artifacts can be examined within shared socio-ecological frames of reference, a first step in the development of new socio-ecologically-based historical narratives. Locating the “inaugural moment” of New England’s Anthropocene epoch at the establishment of Plymouth Colony in 1620, the beginning of England’s colonialization of this forested North American region, the paper presents and interprets regularity analyses of population density, land-use/land cover, and other data related to landscape shaping processes, identifying socio-ecological regime shifts from the aboriginal Late Woodlands regime to the English Colonial regime and subsequent shifts to the American Industrial regime in 1830 and the American Post-Industrial regime in 1970 along with their nested, subsidiary regimes. Previous periodizations of the region’s history are discussed, and a narrative of the region’s Anthropocene history is outlined based on the paper’s periodization. It is observed that displacements of a socio-ecological regime serve as resources for the next regime, that ghosts of past regimes are present in today’s environmental challenges, but that socio-ecological regime shifts are difficult to forecast.
自然与社会之间的关系体现在景观的营造上。因此,景观的变化表明了自然与社会之间关系的变化。自然与社会的关系就像自然和社会系统一样,在区域范围内长期形成,表现出平衡、稳定和渐进变化的时期,最终让位于因果关系发生变化的新的平衡、稳定和渐进变化时期。本文以景观变化为基础,用基础理论对新英格兰(美国)地区的人类世历史进行了分期。其目的是提供时间界限,在此范围内,可以在共同的社会生态参照框架内对过程、事件、记录和人工制品进行研究,这是发展基于社会生态的新历史叙事的第一步。本文将新英格兰人类世的 "开端时刻 "定位于 1620 年普利茅斯殖民地的建立,即英国对这一森林覆盖的北美地区殖民化的开始、本文介绍并解释了人口密度、土地使用/土地覆盖以及与景观塑造过程相关的其他数据的规律性分析,确定了从原住民晚期林地制度到英国殖民制度的社会生态制度变迁,以及随后到 1830 年美国工业制度和 1970 年美国后工业制度的变迁及其嵌套的附属制度变迁。本文讨论了以前对该地区历史的分期,并根据本文的分期概述了该地区的人类世历史。文章指出,社会生态制度的变迁是下一个制度的资源,过去制度的幽灵存在于当今的环境挑战中,但社会生态制度的变迁却难以预测。
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引用次数: 0
The path of human civilization in the Anthropocene: Sustainable growth or sustainable development? 人类文明在 "人类世 "的发展之路:可持续增长还是可持续发展?
Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231218485
J. Winkler, M. Vaverková, E. Koda
This paper discusses the difference between growth and development in plants, and how these concepts can be applied to human civilization. While growth refers to the quantitative gain of biomass, development is characterized by qualitative changes in the specialization and functioning of cells, tissues, and organs. In human society, growth is often prioritized over development, as evidenced by the focus on gross domestic product without considering its social and environmental impacts. Waste, which is produced during consumption, is a significant problem for human civilization as it contributes to pollution and environmental degradation. Waste management and finding new uses for waste are important efforts to utilize waste production; however, their effectiveness is often unclear. Sustainable development of human society should focus on creating systems inspired by nature, which can be achieved by reducing waste production and increasing the share of waste utilizable in biological processes. The functional interconnection between decomposer (waste) and producers (raw materials) in human society is essential for achieving sustainable development. Ultimately, this path leads to the reduction of waste and improves the effectiveness of human activities, thereby reducing threats to ecosystems.
本文讨论植物生长和发育的区别,以及如何将这些概念应用于人类文明。生长指的是生物量的量的增加,而发育的特点则是细胞、组织和器官的专业化和功能的质的变化。在人类社会中,增长往往优先于发展,这体现在人们只关注国内生产总值,而不考虑其对社会和环境的影响。消费过程中产生的废物是人类文明面临的一个重大问题,因为它会造成污染和环境退化。废物管理和寻找废物的新用途是利用废物产生的重要努力,但其效果往往并不明显。人类社会的可持续发展应着眼于创建受大自然启发的系统,这可以通过减少废物生产和增加生物过程中可利用废物的比例来实现。人类社会中分解者(废物)和生产者(原材料)之间的功能性相互联系对于实现可持续发展至关重要。最终,这条道路可以减少废物,提高人类活动的效率,从而减少对生态系统的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Geomorphic changes and socio-environmental impacts of recent sand mining in the Sakarya River, NW Turkey 土耳其西北部萨卡里亚河近期采砂活动造成的地貌变化和社会环境影响
Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231218480
Hilal Okur, M. Erturaç, Kathleen Nicoll
Analysis of multi-temporal satellite images from 1980 to 2019, complemented by geomorphic mapping and field study, indicate that “loose sand” extraction of Sakarya River deposits from the Adapazarı Plain of NW Turkey significantly intensified during the last decade, and mining operations have caused complete and irreversible alteration of floodplain habitat in a total area amounting to ~970 hectares. Our reconstructions estimate the total amount of mined material over a 40-year period since 1980 as ~50 million m3, amounting to ~80 million tonnes of fluvial sand. These sand mine operations, like most around the world, are highly disruptive and destructive but remain unregulated, and neither extractions or environmental impacts are reported or monitored. Our independent study is first to directly assess sand extraction in altering the natural geomorphic setting of the Sakarya River and describe economic, environmental, and social impacts of mining operations. The high demand for loose sand used in cement and concrete infrastructure correlates with changes in Turkey’s political economy, which increasingly focused on construction during the last quarter of the 20th century. Extractive sand mining in this region has caused substantial land loss, soil erosion and water table alterations, which have made agricultural land unsuitable for cultivation, and even destroyed most of the farmland supporting the villages, eliminating the traditional farming practiced for millennia. Continuous mining operations cause constant noise, heavy vehicle traffic and pollution. Furthermore, sand removal from the Sakarya river environment has significantly diminished sediment transport offshore to its delta in the Black Sea; the lower sediment yield diminishes coastal beach nourishment and is accelerating coastal land erosion regionally. The Sakarya case study we describe illustrates the need for (1) improved oversight of human agency that destroys riverine settings; and (2) regulations regarding long term environmental and social impacts of sand mining.
对 1980 年至 2019 年的多时空卫星图像进行分析,并辅以地貌测绘和实地考察,结果表明,过去十年间,从土耳其西北部阿达帕扎勒平原开采萨卡里亚河沉积物的 "松散砂 "活动明显加剧,采矿作业已对总面积约 970 公顷的洪泛区生境造成了完全且不可逆转的改变。根据我们的重建估算,自 1980 年以来的 40 年间,开采的材料总量约为 5,000 万立方米,相当于约 8,000 万吨河沙。这些采砂作业与世界上大多数采砂作业一样,具有极大的破坏性和毁灭性,但却不受监管,开采量或对环境的影响也未得到报告或监测。我们的独立研究首次直接评估了采砂对萨卡里亚河自然地貌环境的改变,并描述了采矿作业对经济、环境和社会的影响。对用于水泥和混凝土基础设施的松散砂的大量需求与土耳其政治经济的变化有关,在 20 世纪最后一个季度,土耳其的政治经济越来越注重建筑业。该地区的采砂造成了大量土地流失、水土流失和地下水位变化,使农田不适合耕种,甚至毁坏了支撑村庄的大部分农田,消除了千百年来的传统耕作方式。持续的采矿作业造成持续的噪音、重型车辆交通和污染。此外,从萨卡里亚河环境中移除的沙子大大减少了沉积物向黑海三角洲的近海输送;沉积物产量的减少削弱了沿海海滩的滋养作用,并加速了该地区沿海土地的侵蚀。我们所描述的萨卡里亚案例研究表明,需要(1)加强对破坏河流环境的人类机构的监督;以及(2)制定有关采砂的长期环境和社会影响的法规。
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引用次数: 0
Why the caged bird sings: Rethinking the Anthropocene with Gallus gallus 笼中鸟为何歌唱?用 Gallus gallus 重新思考人类世
Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231212449
Jeffrey Nicolaisen
Previous research argues Gallus gallus (chickens) makes a strong candidate for a chrono-stratigraphic signal of the Anthropocene, but the history of how G. gallus came to mark the Anthropocene remains to be told. At the macro-level, G. gallus tells a story of slavery, sexism, scientific progress, settler colonialism, nation building, socialist welfare programs, capitalist expansionism, and plantation agriculture. At the micro-level, G. gallus tells a story of the suffering of crippling growth rates and confinement as well as the agency of metabolic labor; goal-directed behavior of hunger, thirst and survival; and resistance in the form of efforts at escape and violence of feather pecking. This paper tells a history that recognizes the sensorial worlds and intentionality of G. gallus, and demonstrates how G. gallus is one instantiation of an assemblage of species that were co-opted into a system that partially overlaps with and simultaneously sustains and threatens the technosphere.
以往的研究认为,鸡是人类世时间-地层信号的有力候选者,但关于鸡如何成为人类世标志的历史仍有待考证。在宏观层面上,五倍子鸡讲述了一个关于奴隶制、性别歧视、科学进步、移民殖民主义、国家建设、社会主义福利计划、资本主义扩张主义和种植园农业的故事。在微观层面上,五倍子鸡讲述了因生长速度过快和被禁锢而遭受的痛苦,以及新陈代谢劳动的作用;饥饿、口渴和生存的目标导向行为;以及以努力逃跑和暴力啄羽为形式的反抗。本文讲述了一段认识到斑马鸡的感官世界和意向性的历史,并展示了斑马鸡是如何被纳入一个与技术圈部分重叠并同时维持和威胁着技术圈的系统的物种集合体的一个实例。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic scenario modelling of the role and influence of Brundtland and vulnerability upon sustainability in the UK in the Anthropocene 人类世英国布伦特兰和脆弱性对可持续性的作用和影响的动态情景模拟
Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231204335
Jason Phillips
The Brundtland report and vulnerability are two of the fundamental perspectives of the environment-human system and relationship. However, the Brundtland report and its incarnations has been argued as anthropocentric in nature and fostering weak sustainability, thus resulting in vulnerability occurring. Furthermore, how the report and its incarnations has been interpreted and implemented by governments, businesses, and organisations is significant in determining sustainability outcomes. It is therefore appropriate and necessary to develop a fundamental dynamic understanding of how Brundtland and vulnerability over time may influence past and present-day sustainability outcomes at specified spatial scale. Consequently, building upon previous research, this paper develops a fundamental dynamic scenario model for the United Kingdom using the Sustainability Dynamics Framework. The model indicates that the UK has been significantly influenced by its interpretation and implementation of the Brundtland report, which has primarily focussed upon the economic and social development aspects. This has resulted in the present-day very weak to weak sustainability occurring for Brundtland-based factors, and weak unsustainability occurring for vulnerability factors. Based upon the historical and present-day modelled scenarios, the paper concludes that the UK is at a tipping point in respect to its environment-human system and relationship. A fundamental transformation is necessary to return the UK to optimum or below-optimum environment-human system thresholds and a more conducive co-evolutionary relationship. Unless this happens, then the risk of significant stress within the environment-human system will only continue to increase, with the possibility of a systemic crisis occurring, or possibly an environmental or societal collapse in the worst-case scenario.
布伦特兰报告和脆弱性是研究环境与人类系统及其关系的两个基本视角。然而,布伦特兰报告及其化身被认为本质上是以人类为中心的,促进了弱的可持续性,从而导致脆弱性的发生。此外,政府、企业和组织如何解释和实施报告及其体现形式,对于确定可持续发展成果至关重要。因此,有必要对布伦特兰和脆弱性在特定空间尺度上随时间的推移如何影响过去和现在的可持续性结果形成基本的动态理解。因此,在先前研究的基础上,本文使用可持续性动力学框架为英国开发了一个基本的动态情景模型。该模型表明,联合王国受到其对布伦特兰报告的解释和执行的重大影响,该报告主要侧重于经济和社会发展方面。这导致了目前布伦特兰基础因素的可持续性非常弱到弱,而脆弱性因素的不可持续性很弱。基于历史和当今的模拟情景,本文得出结论,英国在其环境-人类系统和关系方面处于一个临界点。要使英国回归到最优或低于最优的环境-人类系统阈值和更有利的共同进化关系,就必须进行根本性的变革。除非这种情况发生,否则环境-人类系统内重大压力的风险只会继续增加,有可能发生系统性危机,或者在最坏的情况下可能出现环境或社会崩溃。
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引用次数: 0
Hazardous waste in the Anthropocene: The comparative methods for asbestos roofs detection to assess the environmental risk 人类世的危险废物:石棉屋顶检测评估环境风险的比较方法
Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231207981
Małgorzata Krówczyńska, Ewa Wilk
In the Anthropocene, humanity faces many questions related to the harmful effects of many substances on their health and the environment around them. One such mineral that had many uses, useful in human daily life, but which ultimately turned out to have a detrimental effect on human health and the environment, is asbestos. Due to the progressive urbanization of the world, asbestos has been widely used in the economies of many countries. Its’ unique physical and chemical properties were used, inter alia, for the production of asbestos-cement roofs. The only data available used by researchers and provided by USGS are on asbestos fiber production, which will not enable us to assess the health and environmental risk. It is estimated that over 90% of asbestos-containing products still in use are asbestos roofs. Quantity information is missing so other methods are being sought to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of these roofs to safely eliminate them from use since the environmental pollution with asbestos fibers poses a threat to humans and the natural environment. The purpose of the study is to present methods for estimating the number of asbestos-cement roofs to assess the environmental risk of air pollution on a national scale and to present methods for the recognition of asbestos-cement roofs using various classification algorithms and image data. These algorithms can be successfully used in other countries to determine the amount of asbestos-cement roofs to be safely disposed of and take the necessary actions.
在人类世,人类面临着许多与许多物质对其健康和周围环境的有害影响有关的问题。其中一种矿物有许多用途,在人类日常生活中很有用,但最终被证明对人类健康和环境有有害影响,这就是石棉。由于世界城市化的不断推进,石棉在许多国家的经济中得到了广泛的应用。其独特的物理和化学特性,除其他外,用于生产石棉水泥屋顶。美国地质勘探局提供的、可供研究人员使用的唯一数据是关于石棉纤维生产的,这将使我们无法评估健康和环境风险。据估计,仍在使用的含石棉产品中有90%以上是石棉屋顶。由于缺少数量信息,因此正在寻求其他方法来估计这些屋顶的数量和空间分布,以安全地消除它们的使用,因为石棉纤维对环境的污染对人类和自然环境构成威胁。本研究的目的是提出估算石棉水泥屋顶数量的方法,以评估全国范围内空气污染的环境风险,并提出使用各种分类算法和图像数据识别石棉水泥屋顶的方法。这些算法可以在其他国家成功地用于确定需要安全处置的石棉水泥屋顶的数量并采取必要的行动。
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引用次数: 0
The history of the Jizera Mts forests in the former heavily polluted area of Central Europe 位于前中欧严重污染地区的希泽拉山森林的历史
Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231204344
Ivan Kuneš, Vilém Podrázský, Martin Baláš, Jiří Remeš, Petr Navrátil, Marek Kuc, Jiří Smejkal, Jana Bursíková, Jarosław G Paluch
The Jizera Mountains, situated on the Czech-Polish border and close to Germany, are today an environmentally valuable area attractive for visitors from sportspeople to nature lovers. In the 1980s, however, these mountains were among the most ecologically disrupted places in Europe. Emissions from lignite power plants largely destroyed the Jizera forests. This review summarises the development of forests in the Jizera Mountains and the human activities that influenced the area since the Middle Ages. Particular attention is given to the Industrial Revolution and also to the air pollution calamity in the 1970s and 1980s. The paper describes the causes of the decline of the forests and the factors that led to a significant improvement. Existing challenges for foresters and environmentalists are discussed. This paper views the development of forest ecosystems in the light of political and social events in the border area of three states where the Jizera Mountains are located.
希泽拉山脉位于捷克波兰边境,靠近德国,今天是一个具有环境价值的地区,吸引着从运动员到自然爱好者的游客。然而,在20世纪80年代,这些山脉是欧洲生态破坏最严重的地区之一。褐煤发电厂的排放物在很大程度上破坏了吉塞拉森林。本文综述了自中世纪以来吉泽拉山脉森林的发展和人类活动对该地区的影响。特别关注工业革命和20世纪70年代和80年代的空气污染灾难。本文描述了森林减少的原因和导致显著改善的因素。讨论了林业工作者和环保主义者面临的挑战。本文以冀西拉山脉所在的三州交界地区的政治社会事件为背景,对森林生态系统的发展进行了考察。
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引用次数: 0
Addressing multiple perspectives in studying environmental changes in forest landscapes during the modernization period (18th–19th centuries) 探讨现代化时期(18 - 19世纪)森林景观环境变化的多角度研究
Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.1177/20530196231205485
Tomasz Związek, Dominika Łuców, Joachim Popek, Marcin Klisz, Milena Obremska, Łukasz Sobechowicz, Jerzy Solon, Michał Słowiński, Paweł Przybylski, Łukasz Tyburski, Ewa Zin, Szymon Jastrzębowski, Eliza Płaczkowska, Kamil Pilch, Krzysztof Szewczyk, Agata A Konczal, Paweł Rutkowski, Dariusz Główka, Paweł Swoboda
Combining different diverse data on human and environmental history during the Anthropocene is an extremely challenging task, particularly, if one wants to compare written or cartographic data with a whole range of environmental data recorded for more than the past 200–300 years. In this article, our objective was to demonstrate that one of the keys to facilitating syntheses for the study of forest landscape dynamics was to conduct a thorough investigation into the historical phenomena of modernization. We believe that a comprehensive understanding of the advancements in post-enlightenment thought and contextualizing them within the evolution of the state apparatus during the 18th and 19th centuries will empower us to formulate new research questions and broaden our understanding of the mutual relations between nature and humans in the past.
将人类世期间关于人类和环境历史的不同数据结合起来是一项极具挑战性的任务,特别是如果有人想将书面或地图数据与过去200-300多年来记录的全部环境数据进行比较的话。在本文中,我们的目标是证明促进森林景观动态综合研究的关键之一是对现代化的历史现象进行彻底的调查。我们相信,全面理解后启蒙思想的进步,并将其置于18世纪和19世纪国家机器演变的背景中,将使我们能够提出新的研究问题,并扩大我们对过去自然与人类之间相互关系的理解。
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引用次数: 0
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The anthropocene review
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