Effects of Load Forecast Deviation on the Specification of Energy Storage Systems

Abstract

The liberalization of the German energy market has created opportunities for end-consumers, including industrial companies, to actively participate in the electricity market. By making their energy loads more flexible, consumers can generate additional income and thus save money. Energy storage systems can be utilized to achieve the required flexibility by temporarily storing excess electrical energy in the form of heat, cold, or electricity for later use. This publication focuses on how the dimensionality of energy storage is influenced by load forecasting. The results show that inaccuracies in load forecasting lead to a direct over-dimensioning and thus, a deterioration of the economics of energy storage technologies. Using two scenario cases, it shows on the one hand how important good forecasts are and on the other hand that buffers must be included in the conceptual design in order to be able to compensate for forecast errors.