Frictions and the diffusion of automation

Abstract

This paper studies the implications of business cycle frictions for the diffusion of permanent changes in automation. Incorporating task-based production in different versions of the New Keynesian model reveals considerable short-run implications. Price-distorting nominal rigidities amplify the labor displacement and attenuate the productivity and welfare gains of automation during the transition to the new equilibrium. They exacerbate the falls in the labor income share, the job finding probability, the value of long-term contracts, and labor market tightness. The inflation response follows a J-curve. Frictions in capital supply and wage rigidities amplify the labor displacement and attenuate the productivity gains too.