FlowDIR: a MATLAB tool for rapidly and probabilistically forecasting the travel directions of volcanic flows

Q1 Social Sciences Journal of Applied Volcanology Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI:10.1186/s13617-023-00136-3

Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract We present FlowDIR, a MATLAB tool that rapidly and objectively quantifies future travel direction probabilities for topographically controlled hazardous flows, based on analysis of summit topography. FlowDIR can achieve probabilistic forecasts of future travel directions in minutes and provides a basis for choosing the starting co-ordinates required by empirical flow models. In this work we describe the development of FlowDIR, perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of input parameters on forecasted probabilities, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the retrospective forecasting of travel directions for block-and-ash flows and lava flows at three volcanoes with different summit morphologies (Shinmoedake, Colima and Merapi). In all case studies, the higher probability flow directions identified using FlowDIR agreed with the travel direction of historically observed flows. Given its intuitive outputs and rapid execution time, FlowDIR can be used to supplement existing modelling strategies for hazard assessment of topographically controlled hazardous flows prior to and during crisis. We demonstrate this by coupling FlowDIR output probabilities with an empirical hazard model to estimate probability of block-and-ash flow inundation at Gede volcano, Indonesia.

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FlowDIR:一个MATLAB工具，用于快速和概率地预测火山流的移动方向

基于对峰顶地形的分析，提出了一种基于MATLAB的工具FlowDIR，可以快速、客观地量化地形控制的危险流的未来运动方向概率。FlowDIR可以在分钟内实现对未来出行方向的概率预测，为选择经验流模型所需的起始坐标提供依据。在这项工作中，我们描述了FlowDIR的发展，进行了敏感性分析，以确定输入参数对预测概率的影响，并证明了其在回溯预测三座不同峰顶形态的火山(Shinmoedake, Colima和Merapi)的块状和火山灰流和熔岩流的移动方向方面的有效性。在所有的案例研究中，使用FlowDIR确定的高概率流动方向与历史观测到的流动方向一致。由于其直观的输出和快速的执行时间，FlowDIR可用于补充现有的建模策略，以便在危机之前和危机期间对地形控制的危险流进行危险评估。我们通过将FlowDIR输出概率与经验风险模型相结合来估计印度尼西亚Gede火山的块状和火山灰流淹没概率来证明这一点。

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Volcanology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Applied Volcanology is an international journal with a focus on applied research relating to volcanism and particularly its societal impacts. Characterising volcanic impacts and associated risk relies on not only quantifying physical threat but also understanding social and physical vulnerability and resilience. The broad aim of volcanologists in this domain is to increase public resilience to volcanic risk via research that reduces both human fatalities and volcanic impacts on livelihoods, infrastructure, and the economy. Journal of Applied Volcanology fills an important gap for scientists who want to publish research that addresses this aim and wish to reach a broad audience. The journal has a holistic view of the relationship between volcanoes and society, and therefore welcomes intra- cross- multi- inter- and transdisciplinary articles that deal with volcanoes and society. Research topics covered by the journal include: the impacts of eruptions on communities; methods for risk analysis; risk management; community preparedness, response to and recovery from volcanic hazard events; health issues related to volcanism; social adaptation to volcanic hazards; policy and institutional aspects of volcanic risk management; applications of physical volcanology, geophysics and remote sensing to volcanic crisis mitigation. The journal aims for rapid publication of high-impact research and review papers.