Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

IF 4 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Contemporary Security Policy Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI:10.1080/13523260.2023.2257966

Samuel M. Seitz

引用次数: 2

Abstract

International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior. However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy. I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty. While uncertainty over an adversary’s intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary’s military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture. The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them.

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放下沉睡的熊:乌克兰在战前对不确定性的谨慎态度

长期以来，国际关系理论一直认为，军事化危机期间的不确定性促使国家采取升级行为。然而，俄乌战争的前奏挑战了这一观点，基辅淡化了冲突的风险，并采取了谨慎的外交政策。我认为，乌克兰在战争爆发前的行为表明，有必要在不同类型的不确定性之间进行分解。虽然对对手意图和能力的不确定性会促使一个国家采取升级行为，但对潜在对手军事战略的不确定性以及对第三方支持水平的不确定性会激励一个国家采取更谨慎的姿态。文章最后反思了不确定性对国家决策影响的学科盲点，并提出了克服这些盲点的建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Security Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

14.60

自引率

6.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： One of the oldest peer-reviewed journals in international conflict and security, Contemporary Security Policy promotes theoretically-based research on policy problems of armed conflict, intervention and conflict resolution. Since it first appeared in 1980, CSP has established its unique place as a meeting ground for research at the nexus of theory and policy. Spanning the gap between academic and policy approaches, CSP offers policy analysts a place to pursue fundamental issues, and academic writers a venue for addressing policy. Major fields of concern include: War and armed conflict Peacekeeping Conflict resolution Arms control and disarmament Defense policy Strategic culture International institutions. CSP is committed to a broad range of intellectual perspectives. Articles promote new analytical approaches, iconoclastic interpretations and previously overlooked perspectives. Its pages encourage novel contributions and outlooks, not particular methodologies or policy goals. Its geographical scope is worldwide and includes security challenges in Europe, Africa, the Middle-East and Asia. Authors are encouraged to examine established priorities in innovative ways and to apply traditional methods to new problems.