Time preference and economic growth: The case for China and international comparisons

Abstract

In this paper, first, we measure Chinese time preferences as a whole and by region based on the Euler equation under an assumption of rational expectation. The calculating results show that the rates of Chinese time preference are markedly low for most hypothetical risk attitudes over the concerning period, and there exists heterogeneity in time preferences across regions in China. Second, compared with the estimates for other advanced and emerging countries under the same assumptions and same methodology, the rates of Chinese time preference are the lowest for any given risk preference, suggesting that Chinese are more patient during the time of our examinations. Third, our measured time preferences are powerful in predicting China's high saving rates and rapid growth rates of gross domestic product. In addition, the differences in economic growth rates between China and other sample countries can be partially explained by the differences of estimated cross-countries time preferences within our sample period. Fourth, we investigate the additional factors that affect the Chinese time preferences. Our study provides insights on the regional and international differences in economic growth rates and other economic outcomes.