Climate change perceptions in Bavaria: Revealing the influence of socio-demographic and local environmental factors

Abstract

Research on perceptions of climate change has been focused on either social or environmental factors, lacking interdisciplinarity. This study bridges this gap by assessing the influence of both. Our analyses reveal societal actor group affiliation as the strongest predictor for the perception of climate change.People’s perceptions of climate change are crucial for their readiness to engage in mitigation and adaptation. To identify the most influential factors in shaping perceptions of climate change, we conducted a comprehensive survey, carried out in Bavaria, Germany. Overall, 2,594 individuals across four societal actor groups were surveyed, namely 1,413 farmers, 197 foresters, 152 nature managers, and 832 citizens (no specific profession). We explored to what extent environmental factors (climate trends and land cover conditions in interviewees’ place of residence ‐ based on geographical data) and socio-demographic factors (age, gender, education, societal actor group affiliation ‐ based on survey data) influence perceptions of climate change. Data analyses, including random forest algorithms, revealed socio-demographic factors, particularly societal actor group affiliations, as most influential variables. Local land cover conditions and climate trends only marginally affected residents’ perceptions. Consequently, our results suggest to consider socio-demographic factors for tailoring climate communication, policies and awareness raising campaigns, particularly targeting societal groups most skeptical about climate change.