{"title":"Analyzing the Impacts of Gasoline Price Change on Nationwide Trip Demand and Drivers’ Behavior Using Regression Discontinuity Design","authors":"Sepehr Saeidi, Zahra Amini","doi":"10.24200/sci.2023.58931.5973","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Gasoline is one of the essential commodities in today's societies and its price can affect different aspects of citizens' lives. This article studies the impacts of the sudden increase in gasoline price on the volume of intercity traffic at national and provincial scales, along with the changes in driving speed distribution and the percentage of speeding violations. The studied period includes four months in two consecutive years. Data was collected from more than 2400 loop detectors placed on the roads of 31 provinces of Iran. This data is used for implementing Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) on traffic volume and speeding violation percentage. Statistical measures of speed distribution are also used to examine changes in driving speed. According to the literature, the optimal driving speed for fuel consumption is about 50 to 70 km/h. This study showed a 7.4% increase in the probability of driving in the 50 to 70 km/h range after the price increase. Also, according to research results, the volume of intercity traffic and the percentage of speeding violations has decreased due to the rise in gasoline price.","PeriodicalId":21605,"journal":{"name":"Scientia Iranica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scientia Iranica","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.24200/sci.2023.58931.5973","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Gasoline is one of the essential commodities in today's societies and its price can affect different aspects of citizens' lives. This article studies the impacts of the sudden increase in gasoline price on the volume of intercity traffic at national and provincial scales, along with the changes in driving speed distribution and the percentage of speeding violations. The studied period includes four months in two consecutive years. Data was collected from more than 2400 loop detectors placed on the roads of 31 provinces of Iran. This data is used for implementing Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) on traffic volume and speeding violation percentage. Statistical measures of speed distribution are also used to examine changes in driving speed. According to the literature, the optimal driving speed for fuel consumption is about 50 to 70 km/h. This study showed a 7.4% increase in the probability of driving in the 50 to 70 km/h range after the price increase. Also, according to research results, the volume of intercity traffic and the percentage of speeding violations has decreased due to the rise in gasoline price.
期刊介绍:
The objectives of Scientia Iranica are two-fold. The first is to provide a forum for the presentation of original works by scientists and engineers from around the world. The second is to open an effective channel to enhance the level of communication between scientists and engineers and the exchange of state-of-the-art research and ideas.
The scope of the journal is broad and multidisciplinary in technical sciences and engineering. It encompasses theoretical and experimental research. Specific areas include but not limited to chemistry, chemical engineering, civil engineering, control and computer engineering, electrical engineering, material, manufacturing and industrial management, mathematics, mechanical engineering, nuclear engineering, petroleum engineering, physics, nanotechnology.