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Application of a novel quadratic polynomial discrete grey model to forecast energy consumption of China 一种新的二次多项式离散灰色模型在中国能源消费预测中的应用
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.53774.3405
Xin Ma, Wenqing Wu, Yuanyuan Zhang
The discrete grey modelling technique is a novel methodology of grey predictionmodels, which is effective to improve the effectiveness and applicability of greymodels. In order to build a more general and effective univariate grey predictionmodel, the discrete grey modelling technique is utilised in this paper to builda quadratic polynomial discrete grey model, abbreviated as the QPDGM. Theproperties of the QPDGM model have been discussed, which indicate that thenew model can be regarded as an extension of the conventional discrete greymodel and nonhomogeneous grey model, and it is also coincidence with threeclasses of exponential sequences. The QPDGM model is finally applied to predictthe energy consumption of China, including the electric power, crude oil andnatural gas consumptions. The results have been compared to some commonlyused univariate grey prediction models, which indicates the QPDGM model isgenerally more accurate than other models.
离散灰色建模技术是一种新的灰色预测模型方法,可以有效地提高灰色模型的有效性和适用性。为了建立更通用、更有效的单变量灰色预测模型,本文利用离散灰色建模技术建立二次多项式离散灰色模型,简称QPDGM。讨论了QPDGM模型的性质,表明该模型可以看作是传统的离散灰色模型和非齐次灰色模型的扩展,并且与三类指数序列吻合。最后运用QPDGM模型对中国能源消费进行了预测,包括电力、原油和天然气消费。结果与常用的单变量灰色预测模型进行了比较,表明QPDGM模型总体上比其他模型更准确。
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引用次数: 0
Temperature dependent heat generation and variable viscosity features for viscoelastic fluid with homogeneous and heterogeneous (HH) chemical reactions 具有均相和非均相(HH)化学反应的粘弹性流体的温度依赖性热生成和可变粘度特征
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.61173.7179
Munazza Saeed, Bilal Ahmad, Chemseddine Maatki, Tasawar Abbas, Bilel Hadrich, Sami Ullah Khan, Karim Kriaa, Qazi Mehmood Ul-Hassan, Lioua Kolsi
This investigation presents the heat and mass transfer phenomenon for the chemically reactive flow of second grade fluid subject to the homogeneous and heterogeneous (HH) chemical reactions. The viscosity of fluid is assumed to be temperature dependent instead of constant. The motivations for considering the viscosity as a function of temperature is justified with applications of metallurgical process, crude oil extraction, geothermal systems and machinery lubrication. Additionally, viscous dissipation and temperature dependent heat generation and absorption effects are also introduced to improve the thermal transportation phenomenon. The interaction of different new variables facilitates the problem into dimensionless form. The numerical achievements are predicted with implementing the Runge Kutta (RK4) method. The physical onset behind the parameters have been reported. The tabular quantitative analysis is performed for different physical quantities.
本文研究了二级流体在均相和非均相化学反应下的化学反应流的传热传质现象。假定流体的粘度与温度有关,而不是恒定的。考虑粘度作为温度函数的动机与冶金过程、原油开采、地热系统和机械润滑的应用是合理的。此外,还引入了粘性耗散和温度相关的产热和吸收效应来改善热输运现象。不同新变量的相互作用使问题易于转化为无量纲形式。采用Runge Kutta (RK4)方法对数值结果进行了预测。已经报道了这些参数背后的物理现象。对不同物理量进行表格式定量分析。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling of Jet Electrochemical Machining Using Numerical and Design of Experiments Methods 射流电化学加工的数值模拟与实验设计方法
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.60185.6650
Ali Mehrvar, Mohsen Motamedi, Abouzar Jamalpour
Modeling and determining the optimal conditions for the jet electrochemical machining (Jet-ECM) process is critical. In this study, a hybrid approach combining numerical and design of experiments (DOE) methods have been applied to model and determine the optimal conditions for Jet-ECM. The voltage (V), inner tool diameter (I), initial machining gap (G), and electrolyte conductivity (C) are considered input variables. Additionally, dimensional accuracy (E) and machining depth (D) are response variables. Twenty-seven numerical simulations have been performed using the Box–Behnken design to implement the response surface methodology (RSM). Consequently, two mathematical models have been obtained for these response variables. The effects of the input variables on the response variables are investigated using statistical techniques such as variance analysis. Furthermore, the desirability function approach has been applied to determine the optimal conditions for dimensional accuracy and depth of machining. The results show that the optimal values for achieving maximum depth of machining while maintaining a dimensional accuracy of 0.05 mm are as follows: electrolyte conductivity of 8 S/m, voltage of 36.9 V, initial machining gap of 200 μm, and inner tool diameter of 0.4 mm.
射流电化学加工(jet - ecm)过程的建模和优化条件的确定至关重要。本文采用数值与实验设计相结合的方法对射流- ecm的最佳条件进行建模和确定。电压(V)、刀具内径(I)、初始加工间隙(G)和电解液电导率(C)被认为是输入变量。另外,尺寸精度(E)和加工深度(D)是响应变量。采用Box-Behnken设计进行了27次数值模拟,以实现响应面法(RSM)。因此,得到了两个响应变量的数学模型。输入变量对响应变量的影响使用方差分析等统计技术进行研究。在此基础上,应用理想函数法确定了尺寸精度和加工深度的最佳条件。结果表明:在保持尺寸精度为0.05 mm的条件下,电解液电导率为8 S/m,电压为36.9 V,初始加工间隙为200 μm,刀具内直径为0.4 mm,可实现最大加工深度。
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引用次数: 0
Improving the Performance of Variable Reluctance Resolver Against Short Circuit Using Physical Parameters 利用物理参数提高变磁阻变压器抗短路性能
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.62539.7901
Hamed Lasjerdi, Zahra Nasiri-Gheidari
Variable reluctance resolver is one of the popular sensors used in the industry. Because they can operate at high temperatures, withstand shock and less expensive and easier to manufacture. Despite the mentioned advantages, the variable reluctance resolver may suffer from faults that lead to inaccurate position. The paper aims to reduce position error under short circuit fault by changing parameters such as excitation frequency, number of signal and excitation poles, shape of the air gap, slot opening width and the number of teeth. The effect of each parameter on reducing the position error is examined to determine whether it has a positive, a negative or zero effect. Finally, the optimal case is introduced by selecting the best value for each parameter, which significantly reduces the position error.
变磁阻变压器是工业上常用的传感器之一。因为它们可以在高温下工作,承受冲击,而且更便宜,更容易制造。尽管有上述优点,可变磁阻变压器可能会出现导致定位不准确的故障。本文通过改变激励频率、信号和激励极数、气隙形状、槽开口宽度、齿数等参数,减小短路故障下的位置误差。检查每个参数对减小位置误差的影响,以确定它是否具有正、负或零影响。最后,通过选取各参数的最优值,引入最优情况,显著减小了定位误差。
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引用次数: 0
Fabrication of a Cost-effective Piezoresistive Pressure Sensor Based on PVC/Reduced Graphene Oxide (rGO) Composite 基于PVC/还原氧化石墨烯(rGO)复合材料的高性价比压阻压力传感器的制备
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.62495.7870
Iraj Ahadzadeh, Samira Dabbagh
A cost-effective piezoresistive sensor based on PVC/Reduced graphene oxide (rGO) was fabricated and its performance was investigated. The weight percent range from 0.1 to 30% of rGO in PVC matrix was studied. Composite parts were prepared by using the solution casting method from tetrahydrofurane (THF) solvent followed by solvent evaporation. The plot of electrical conduction versus rGO percentage was constructed to obtain the percolation threshold concentration. It was found that the percolation threshold of rGO leading to a continuous stable electrical conductivity in PVC matrix is about 25% beyond which electrical resistance was reduced from about 800 GΩ to lower than 100 KΩ range. The relative changes in electrical resistance of prepared polymer parts as a result of impact (stress), stretch and bending deformation were studied. The results showed that the fabricated composite can be used for sensing and/or monitoring and measurement of any mechanical displacement with high sensitivity, promising reproducibility and satisfactory durability. It must be mentioned that, during impact tests of polymer composites, a small piezoelectric effect was also observed for which further complimentary studies are being planned to be performed in near future in order to better understand this effect and its underlining molecular basis.
制备了一种基于PVC/还原氧化石墨烯(rGO)的低成本压阻式传感器,并对其性能进行了研究。研究了还原氧化石墨烯在PVC基体中的重量百分比范围为0.1% ~ 30%。以四氢呋喃(THF)为溶剂,采用溶液浇铸法制备了复合材料零件。构建了电导率与氧化石墨烯百分比的关系图,以获得渗透阈值浓度。研究发现,还原氧化石墨烯的渗透阈值约为25%,使PVC基体的电导率持续稳定,超过该阈值,电阻从800 GΩ左右降低到100 KΩ以下。研究了冲击(应力)变形、拉伸变形和弯曲变形对聚合物制件电阻的影响。结果表明,所制备的复合材料可用于任何机械位移的传感和/或监测和测量,具有高灵敏度,良好的再现性和满意的耐久性。必须指出的是,在聚合物复合材料的冲击试验中,还观察到一种小的压电效应,正在计划在不久的将来对此进行进一步的补充研究,以便更好地了解这种效应及其主要的分子基础。
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引用次数: 0
Simultaneous energy hub operation and construction for investigating quantitative flexibility considering uncertain supply and demand side resources 考虑不确定供需侧资源的能源枢纽同步运行与建设定量灵活性研究
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.61477.7330
Basir Rashedi, Amir Abdollahi, Masoud Rashidinejad
In this paper, the quantitative flexibility of EH is evaluated considering a flexibility index which is based upon available maximum capacity as well as the response time of generating units. Here, the impact of simultaneous EH operation and construction are investigated on quantitative flexibility considering both uncertain supply and demand side resources. Hence, a new structure so-called multi-objective simultaneous operation/construction optimization of multi-carrier EH is presented which consists of a decrease in operation and construction costs as well increase in power system flexibility. The demand side uncertainties, including thermal/electrical demand, are implemented by the Gaussian distribution function, and uncertainty on the supply side, including gas pressure uncertainty (GPU), is modeled by the probabilistic–possibilistic Z-number method. Also, in multifarious cases, the performance of the proposed index is evaluated. It is shown how flexible resources like electrical storage systems (ESS), thermal storage systems (TSS), electrical demand response programs (EDRP), and thermal demand response programs (TDRP) can increase the flexibility of the EH. It is also conducted that how the flexibility enhancement can increase construction costs.
本文考虑了基于最大可用容量和机组响应时间的柔性指标,对电力系统的定量柔性进行了评价。在此,考虑不确定的供给侧和需求侧资源,研究了EH同时运行和建设对定量灵活性的影响。在此基础上,提出了一种多载波EH多目标同时运行/建设优化的新结构,该结构既降低了运行和建设成本,又提高了电力系统的灵活性。需求侧的不确定性(包括热/电需求)采用高斯分布函数实现,供应侧的不确定性(包括燃气压力不确定性(GPU))采用概率-可能性z数方法建模。此外,在各种情况下,所提出的指标的性能进行了评估。它显示了灵活的资源,如电力存储系统(ESS)、热存储系统(TSS)、电力需求响应程序(EDRP)和热需求响应程序(TDRP)如何增加EH的灵活性。并分析了柔性增强对建筑成本的影响。
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引用次数: 0
An economic order quantity model for two deteriorating items with mutually complementary price and time dependent demand 价格互补且需求随时间变化的两种变质物品的经济订货量模型
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.59611.6337
David Mahlangu, Olufemi Adetunji, Makoena Sebatjane
We present an inventory model to determine the optimal selling price and cycle time for two mutually complementary commodities that are subject to deterioration. Each commodity's demand is influenced by its own selling price, the selling price of the complementary product, and the passage of time. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis results are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the inventory model. We conducted sensitivity analysis on the impacts of the changes in key parameters of the model on the decision variables and the objective (profitability) of the inventory system. We observed that as the deterioration rate of either item increases, the model proposes shorter replenishment cycle length, which reduces the profit. Our model’s novelty is the inclusion of mutual (two-way) complementarity in the Economic Order Quantity model, where both items are deteriorating and have time-dependent demands.
我们提出了一个库存模型,以确定两种相互补充的商品的最优销售价格和周期时间。每种商品的需求受其本身的销售价格、配套产品的销售价格和时间的推移的影响。给出了数值算例和灵敏度分析结果,验证了库存模型的有效性。我们对模型关键参数的变化对库存系统决策变量和目标(盈利能力)的影响进行了敏感性分析。我们观察到,随着任何一种商品的劣化率增加,该模型提出了更短的补货周期长度,这减少了利润。我们的模型的新颖之处在于在经济订货量模型中包含了相互(双向)互补性,其中两个项目都在恶化并且具有时间依赖性需求。
{"title":"An economic order quantity model for two deteriorating items with mutually complementary price and time dependent demand","authors":"David Mahlangu, Olufemi Adetunji, Makoena Sebatjane","doi":"10.24200/sci.2023.59611.6337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24200/sci.2023.59611.6337","url":null,"abstract":"We present an inventory model to determine the optimal selling price and cycle time for two mutually complementary commodities that are subject to deterioration. Each commodity's demand is influenced by its own selling price, the selling price of the complementary product, and the passage of time. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis results are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the inventory model. We conducted sensitivity analysis on the impacts of the changes in key parameters of the model on the decision variables and the objective (profitability) of the inventory system. We observed that as the deterioration rate of either item increases, the model proposes shorter replenishment cycle length, which reduces the profit. Our model’s novelty is the inclusion of mutual (two-way) complementarity in the Economic Order Quantity model, where both items are deteriorating and have time-dependent demands.","PeriodicalId":21605,"journal":{"name":"Scientia Iranica","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136078300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Phenomenological Approach to Analysis of Maintenance Activities Impact on Interruption Duration in Electricity Distribution Systems, based on Historical Data and Expert Judgment 基于历史数据和专家判断的配电系统维修活动对中断时间影响分析的现象学方法
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.62894.8090
Nima Salek Gilani, Alireza Fereidunian
This study intends to quantify, model and evaluate the impact of preventive maintenance (PM) on interruption duration (IntD) in electricity distribution systems, based on analyzing the data from the dashboard of an electricity distribution company and expert opinions. Following the data cleaning, the data are analyzed to identify the failure modes and their effects, to recognize the critical components (FMEA). Subsequently, the PM activities associated with them are investigated, to analyze the maintenance activities scheduling impact on IntD, employing expert judgment as a decision support. The data analysis reveals that the fuses and fuse holders experience the highest interruptions frequencies and durations, nominating them as critical components. Then, the impact of maintenance activity (inspection time) on the IntD percentage change is analyzed, leading to calculation of the sensitivity of IntD to maintenance activity. The quasi-linear shape of the IntD and ENS percentage decreases versus PM inspection time, i.e. the intended sensitivities is observed, thus two linear models are developed to represent this impact, suitable for maintenance optimization problems which need linear models convexity. Moreover, two indices of SIntDPM and SENSPM are introduced as maintenance KPIs representing the sensitivities, to prioritize PM actions versus their impact on IntD.
本研究拟在分析某配电公司仪表盘数据及专家意见的基础上,量化、建模及评估配电系统预防性维护(PM)对中断持续时间(IntD)的影响。在数据清理之后,对数据进行分析,以识别故障模式及其影响,以识别关键组件(FMEA)。随后,对与之相关的PM活动进行调查,分析维护活动安排对IntD的影响,采用专家判断作为决策支持。数据分析显示,保险丝和保险丝座经历最高的中断频率和持续时间,将其列为关键部件。然后,分析维修活动(检查时间)对IntD百分比变化的影响,从而计算IntD对维修活动的敏感性。IntD和ENS百分比的准线性形状随PM检测时间而减小,即预期灵敏度被观察到,因此建立了两个线性模型来表示这种影响,适用于需要线性模型凸性的维修优化问题。此外,引入SIntDPM和SENSPM两个指标作为代表敏感性的维护kpi,以优先考虑PM行动及其对IntD的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Investments in energy efficiency with government environmental sensitiveness: An application of geometric programming and game theory 能源效率投资与政府环境敏感性:几何规划和博弈论的应用
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.60289.6706
Zahra Fatemi, Seyed Jafar Sadjadi, Armin Jabbarzadeh, Ahmad Makui
To maintain a competitive advantage, manufacturers of household appliances should promote the product’s energy efficiency, considering the impact on customer purchasing behavior. Since the product’s energy efficiency and pricing policies influence customers’ purchasing decisions, manufacturers confront significant challenges in balancing costs and demand since they must consider their profit-maximizing objective and government regulations. The Stackelberg game framework represents the interactions between the government, the leader, and a manufacturer, the follower, incorporating the government’s involvement in environmentally dependent social welfare under a tax structure. This paper proposes closed-form equilibrium using a game theory approach and geometric programming (GP) to solve the government’s and manufacturers’ non-linear decision models. The analytical results offer insight into the management’s approach to the product’s energy efficiency. The findings demonstrate that when clients’ concerns about energy-saving grow, the net payoff to the total manufacturer revenue ratio continuously decreases. The outcomes imply that the manufacturer must allocate significant revenue to tax expenditures in markets with more price-sensitive clients. As a motivation for research, this paper explores the application of the proposed model by examining a numerical example of a real-world refrigerator manufacturer case to obtain further managerial insight.
为了保持竞争优势,家电制造商应该考虑到对消费者购买行为的影响,提高产品的能效。由于产品的能源效率和定价政策影响消费者的购买决策,制造商在平衡成本和需求方面面临重大挑战,因为他们必须考虑利润最大化的目标和政府法规。Stackelberg博弈框架代表了政府(领导者)和制造商(追随者)之间的互动,其中包含了政府在税收结构下对环境依赖型社会福利的参与。本文利用博弈论方法和几何规划(GP),提出了一个封闭均衡模型来解决政府和制造商的非线性决策模型。分析结果提供了洞察管理的方法,以产品的能源效率。研究结果表明,当客户对节能的关注增加时,净收益占制造商总收入的比例不断降低。研究结果表明,在客户对价格更敏感的市场中,制造商必须将可观的收入分配给税收支出。作为研究的动机,本文通过研究现实世界冰箱制造商案例的数值示例来探索所提出模型的应用,以获得进一步的管理见解。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical Investigation of the Heat Transfer and Peristaltic Flow Through a Asymmetric Channel Having Variable Viscosity and Electric Conductivity 具有变黏度和变电导率的非对称通道传热和蠕动流动的数值研究
4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.24200/sci.2023.60404.6783
Jamil Abbas Haider, Sana Gul, Sohail Nadeem
The peristaltic flow of nanofluids is a topic of growing interest in fluid dynamics. This study investigates the effect of temperature-dependent viscosity and electric conductivity on the peristaltic flow of nanofluids. The mathematical model of the peristaltic flow is developed using the governing equations of continuity, momentum, and energy for a Newtonian fluid. Large wavelength and small Reynolds number assumptions are used to study peristaltic flow to simplify the equations of continuity, momentum, and energy. In this article, the nanofluids are assumed to be electrically conducting and temperature dependent, and the effects of Hartman number and Eckert number is studied. The resulting equations are solved using the Shooting Method. The results show that the temperature-dependent viscosity and electric conductivity significantly affect the peristaltic flow of nanofluids. The flow rate and pressure gradient decrease with increasing viscosity and conductivity while the temperature and heat transfer rate increase. Moreover, the nanofluid concentration and particle size significantly impact the flow characteristics. In conclusion, this study comprehensively analyses the peristaltic flow of nanofluids with temperature-dependent viscosity and electric conductivity. The results can be useful for understanding the behaviour of nanofluids in various applications, such as drug delivery systems, microfluidics, and thermal management.
纳米流体的蠕动流动是流体动力学中一个日益受到关注的话题。本研究探讨了温度依赖性粘度和电导率对纳米流体蠕动流动的影响。利用牛顿流体的连续性、动量和能量控制方程,建立了蠕动流动的数学模型。采用大波长和小雷诺数假设来研究蠕动流动,简化了连续性、动量和能量方程。本文假设纳米流体具有导电性和温度依赖性,研究了哈特曼数和埃克特数对纳米流体性能的影响。用射击法求解得到的方程。结果表明,黏度和电导率随温度的变化对纳米流体的蠕动流动有显著影响。随着粘度和电导率的增加,流速和压力梯度减小,而温度和换热速率增大。此外,纳米流体的浓度和粒径对流动特性有显著影响。综上所述,本研究全面分析了具有温度依赖性粘度和电导率的纳米流体的蠕动流动。研究结果有助于理解纳米流体在各种应用中的行为,如药物输送系统、微流体和热管理。
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引用次数: 0
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Scientia Iranica
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