Applying Decisions’ Theory to choose an Alternative Factor for Spatial Development in Holy Karbala Governorate

None Zahraa Mohammed Jasim, None Mohammed Jasim Sha’ban
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Abstract

It is very well known in the planning publications that when creating spacing development to a region or sub-region, it can be able to make more than an alternative consisting with the strategic directions overtaken from the actual development of region and the situational and developmental objectives needed. However, the difficulty facing the situational planning is in selecting one of these alternatives to be the best in order to make a balanced situational re-structure, and achieving the economic, social and civil objectives. The developmental situation elements in the regions and governorates, including (Karbala) impose themselves as situational power which implies the process of re-structural arrangement where the situational development is considered the active method for such arrangement. Thus, the difficulty of making decision in selecting any of the developmental alternatives seems easier for the situational planner as he has the programming methods and operations researches. The scientific method is used for making decision to suggest the developmental alternative which can achieve the strategic comprehension of the development elements and ensures the exploitation better to achieve the decree objectives. The method of decisions making theory is considered one scientific method which can be used in this regard. They mechanism of the decisions theory implies making more than one alternative to arrange the strategies and objectives in a matrix through which can make more than a case of making decision towards selecting the suitable situational strategy to achieve the objectives under the case of making decision brunt determined by the interdependent aspect in making decision. This necessitates knowledge of the developmental reality of the studied region or province. Therefore, the applied study of the developmental reality in the Karbala (region) province showed that there are two strategies that can be adopted to bring about spatial development in that province: the balanced growth strategy in the first, rational aspect drawn for sectors for development and the decision to maximize returns, and in the second aspect (cumulative) and the third (participatory), as well as the application proved the possibility of adopting the strategy of manufacturing and manufacturing for export in order to achieve a special type of goals at the lowest costs, whether in the case of certainty or risk, and this leaves the room clear for the decision maker to adopt any of the two strategies.
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应用决策理论选择圣卡尔巴拉省空间发展的替代因子
在规划出版物中众所周知,当创建一个区域或次区域的间隔发展时,它可以做出比替代方案更多的选择,包括从区域实际发展中超越的战略方向以及所需的态势和发展目标。然而,情境规划面临的困难在于如何从这些备选方案中选择最佳方案,以实现平衡的情境重构,实现经济、社会和民事目标。包括卡尔巴拉在内的地区和省份的发展态势要素将自己作为情境权力强加于人,这意味着重组安排的过程,而情境发展被认为是这种安排的积极方法。因此,由于情境规划者有规划方法和运筹学研究,在发展方案的选择中做出决策的困难似乎更容易。运用科学的方法进行决策,提出发展方案,既能实现对发展要素的战略性理解,又能更好地保证开发以实现既定目标。决策理论方法被认为是这方面可以使用的一种科学方法。决策理论的机制是指在决策的相互依赖方面决定的决策冲击情况下,通过一个以上的备选方案将战略和目标安排在一个矩阵中,从而可以做出不止一个决策案例,以选择合适的情境策略来实现目标。这就需要了解所研究地区或省份的发展现实。因此,对卡尔巴拉省(区)发展现实的应用研究表明,卡尔巴拉省空间发展可采取两种策略:平衡增长战略在第一个方面,理性方面为部门发展和决定最大限度地提高回报,在第二个方面(累积)和第三个方面(参与),以及应用证明了采用制造业和制造业出口战略的可能性,以便以最低的成本实现一种特殊类型的目标,无论是在确定性或风险的情况下,这就为决策者选择这两种策略中的任何一种留下了余地。
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