Small area estimation of trends in household living standards in Uganda using a GMANOVA-MANOVA model and repeated surveys

Abstract

AbstractPanel survey data from Uganda, as well as data from the 2014 Uganda Population and Housing Census have been analyzed. The Growth Curve model with rank restrictions on parameters was used to estimate the small area means. The aim of the analysis was to assess change over time in household living standards (welfare), i.e., to investigate whether households display growth in living standards? whether households grow at the same rates? and whether households in different geographical areas of the country grow at the same rates? Using a GMANOVA-MANOVA model with rank restrictions on parameters, it was established that growth in household standards of living in Uganda varied across small areas. Sub-regions (small areas) with the highest standards of living in Uganda at the endline were Central Urban region, Kampala Urban region and South Western Urban region, while the sub-regions with the lowest standards of living at the endline were North East Rural region, North East Urban region and Eastern Rural region. The sub-regions with the highest growth rates in standards of living were Mid West Urban region, Mid North Rural region, and South Western Urban region. The sub-regions with the highest decline in standards of living were East Central Rural region, East Rural region and West Nile Urban region.KEYWORDS: Extended growth curve modelrank restrictions on parametersrepeated surveyssmall area estimation AcknowledgmentsWe thank the Uganda Bureau of Statistics for providing all the datasets that were used in this article. We thank the editors and reviewers for the insightful comments.Additional informationFundingThe research of Felix Wamono is supported by the Swedish International Development and Cooperation Agency (Sida) in collaboration with Makerere University, under Sida-Makerere University Cooperation Agreement, Project 316. Dietrich von Rosen is supported by the Swedish Research Council (2017-03003).