The End of the Age-Crime Curve? A Historical Comparison of Male Arrest Rates in the United States, 1985–2019

IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY British Journal of Criminology Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI:10.1093/bjc/azad049
James Tuttle
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Abstract

Abstract As presented in this article, the overall arrest rate for males in the United States no longer peaks during the late teenage years, contrary to the traditional conceptualization of the age-crime curve. Instead of peaking around age 18 and falling throughout adulthood, the overall arrest rate in 2019 did not peak until age 27. Using a dissimilarity index, the results show that the age-crime curve for overall, violent and property offenses during 2019 differs significantly from that of 1985. However, the age-crime curve is still apparent within the data when examined by birth cohort. It appears that a sudden decline in the proportion of offenses committed by 15-to-19-year-old males is responsible for the shift in the aggregate/cross-sectional age-crime curve.
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年龄-犯罪曲线的终结?1985-2019年美国男性逮捕率的历史比较
如本文所述,美国男性的总体逮捕率在青少年晚期不再达到峰值,这与传统的年龄-犯罪曲线概念相反。2019年的总体逮捕率不是在18岁左右达到峰值,然后在整个成年期下降,而是直到27岁才达到峰值。使用不相似指数,结果显示,2019年总体暴力犯罪和财产犯罪的年龄犯罪曲线与1985年有很大不同。然而,当对出生队列进行检查时,年龄-犯罪曲线在数据中仍然很明显。15- 19岁男性犯罪比例的突然下降似乎是造成总体/横截面年龄-犯罪曲线变化的原因。
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来源期刊
British Journal of Criminology
British Journal of Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
7.70%
发文量
81
期刊介绍: The British Journal of Criminology: An International Review of Crime and Society is one of the world"s top criminology journals. It publishes work of the highest quality from around the world and across all areas of criminology. BJC is a valuable resource for academics and researchers in crime, whether they be from criminology, sociology, anthropology, psychology, law, economics, politics or social work, and for professionals concerned with crime, law, criminal justice, politics, and penology. In addition to publishing peer-reviewed articles, BJC contains a substantial book review section.
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