Future Scenarios For Land use and Coverage in the Morro do Chapéu State Park/Bahia/Brazil

Abstract

Objective: The present study area is a conservation unit that faces environmental conflicts associated with deforestation, hence the objective of this article is to evaluate changes in land use and land cover between the years 1985 and 2020, in the region currently covered by the Park State of Morro do Chapéu/BA and its surroundings, in addition to predicting future scenarios. Method: Images from the Mapbiomas project from 1985 and 2020 were used, and from the neural network method, using the MOLUSCE plugin, it was possible to simulate a land use and land cover model for the year 2040. Results and conclusion: The results showed little significant changes, practically imperceptible, with the most affected areas being those occupied by natural vegetation and agricultural classes. Research implications: The Morro de Chapéu State Park is home to numerous floristic and faunal species, in addition to its physical, biological and environmental complexity, therefore predicting changes in the dynamics of land use and cover is the main factor for conserving this wealth. Originality/value: This study contributes to the implementation of policies aimed at preserving this conservation unit and at the same time incorporates an unprecedented element with the simulations of future scenarios.