Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Enrico Berkes, Olivier Deschenes, Ruben Gaetani, Jeffrey Lin, Christopher Severen
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Abstract

Abstract Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have preserved other inventive factors.
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封锁与创新:来自1918年流感大流行的证据
社交距离是否损害创新?我们估计了非药物干预措施(npi)对当地发明的影响——限制相互作用以试图减缓疾病传播的政策。我们构建了一个由美国50个大城市在1918年流感大流行期间采用的已发布专利和npi组成的面板。差异中的差异估计表明,采用较长新产品导入方案的城市在大流行期间的专利申请数量没有比采用较短新产品导入方案的城市下降,而且在大流行之后的专利申请数量更高。大流行期间采用的国家自主行动方案可能保留了其他发明因素,而不是通过限制局部知识溢出来减少当地发明。
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