{"title":"An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Türkiye’s CDS Premium and Economic, Financial and Political Risk","authors":"Esra SOYU, Munise ILIKKAN ÖZGÜR","doi":"10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.04.04","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the causal relationship between Türkiye’s economic, financial, and political risk rates and CDS premiums. This assessment uses the Bootstrap TY and time-varying causality test to scrutinise the relationship between the risk rates and CDS premium between the periods 2000:10 and 2020:06. While the former analysis finds no causal relationship among the variables, the latter analysis deduces a significant causality. The Bootstrap TY asymmetric causality test findings discover causality arising from the negative shocks from political risk to CDS premium. The findings of the time-varying causality test identify periods in Türkiye in which a causal relationship is prevalent between economic, financial, and political risk with CDS premium.","PeriodicalId":42679,"journal":{"name":"Sosyoekonomi","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sosyoekonomi","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.04.04","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This study investigates the causal relationship between Türkiye’s economic, financial, and political risk rates and CDS premiums. This assessment uses the Bootstrap TY and time-varying causality test to scrutinise the relationship between the risk rates and CDS premium between the periods 2000:10 and 2020:06. While the former analysis finds no causal relationship among the variables, the latter analysis deduces a significant causality. The Bootstrap TY asymmetric causality test findings discover causality arising from the negative shocks from political risk to CDS premium. The findings of the time-varying causality test identify periods in Türkiye in which a causal relationship is prevalent between economic, financial, and political risk with CDS premium.
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