Allowing for Psychological Comprehensive Perception Value in Transfer Decision of Public Transit

Abstract

To explore traveler transfer decisions for different purposes, a transfer decision model allowing psychological comprehensive perception value is built based on cumulative prospect theory. Combined with the value function of the arrival time and time value model, the cost function of psychological comprehensive perception is established, and the reference point of psychological comprehensive perception is set. Travel cumulative prospect models of bus interchanges and bus transfers to subways chosen by commuters and noncommuters are established, and the two-dimensional (departure time and travel mode) optimal travel decisions of commuters and noncommuters are obtained based on the calculation results. The results show that traveler cumulative prospect value first increases and then decreases with the delay of departure time, and the peak value’s occurrence time of a bus transfer to a subway is later than that of a bus interchange. Cumulative prospect value decreases as the transfer time increases when travelers’ arrive at the destination at the same time. Commuters obtain higher gains when they choose late departure time and bus transfer to the subway with determined transfer time, while noncommuters obtain higher gains with the opposite choice. The results show that traveler comprehensive psychological perception not only depends on arrival time but also depends on departure time, travel time in different stages, and cost. Travelers have different risk preferences for different travel purposes, and commuters’ time value is high, which determines whether they tend to pursue risk. Noncommuters tend to avoid risk. This conclusion can provide a theoretical basis for transfer decisions to improve satisfaction with public transit.